\u3000\u3000 Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) )
Matters:
The company released the annual report of 2021. In 2021, the operating revenue was 203.5 billion yuan (+ 3%), and the net profit attributable to the parent was 9.3 billion yuan year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent after deduction was 8.3 billion yuan (- 5%). The dividend plan is to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 1.85 (including tax) for every 10 shares, and the accumulation fund will not be converted into share capital.
Ping An View:
The share of engine and gearbox increased. In 2021, the heavy truck industry sold 1.395 million units (- 13.8%), and the construction machinery industry sold 1.014 million units (+ 10.4%). In 2021, Weichai sold 1.02 million engines (+ 3%), including 429000 heavy truck engines, with the share increasing by 2.8 percentage points to 30.7%. 1153000 transmissions were sold, including 1.01 million heavy truck transmissions, with a year-on-year increase of 5.3 percentage points to 72.4%. High end products continue to develop, with revenue of 1.4 billion (+ 49%) for large bore engines and 560 million (+ 12%) for high-end hydraulics in China. The external revenue of engine increased by 10% year-on-year to 52.3 billion, and the net interest rate of engine business decreased by 2.1 percentage points year-on-year to 11.5%. The revenue of gearbox company fast was 16.9 billion (- 6.3%), and the net interest rate also fell to 6.9% year-on-year, realizing a net profit of 1.17 billion. Shaanxi Heavy Truck Group Co., Ltd. lost 540 million yuan in the current period, with a decline in its share of heavy trucks and a sales volume of 150000 units in 2021.
Smart logistics ushered in a strong recovery. Kaiao is a leading global supplier in the field of internal logistics. In 2021, Kaiao made a strong recovery, achieved a revenue of 10.3 billion euros (+ 23.4%), and a net profit of 570 million euros, a year-on-year increase of 1.7 times, making it the best in history. In December 2021, Kaiao China forklift phase I project was put into operation and the dematec project in the United States was started, which will help the company's intelligent logistics business expand the Asia Pacific market, especially the Chinese market.
R & D expenditure increased. In the second half of 2021, the growth rate of various expenses decreased due to the decline of industry scale. In 2021, R & D investment increased by 3.3% year-on-year to 8.6 billion, of which the capitalization rate increased by 3.48 percentage points year-on-year to 11.5%, and the R & D expense rate in 2021 was 3.38% year-on-year to 0.33 percentage points.
Rapid layout of hydrogen fuel cells. The company has comprehensively arranged three assembly platforms of fuel cell, hybrid and pure electric, developed a full range of 30-200KW fuel cell product platform and realized mass production release. Strategic cooperation with Swiss Feifei group, committed to providing global customers with high-performance, high-quality and cost-effective fuel cell air compressor product solutions; Actively participated in promoting the "hydrogen into 10000 homes" science and technology demonstration project, and hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars have operated more than 15 million kilometers in total; Hydrogen fuel cell heavy truck realizes multi scenario application.
Looking forward to the future, Weichai will increase its supporting share in the field of light and heavy trucks. It is estimated that the market share of supporting heavy truck engines will increase from 30% to more than 40%, and the supporting share of light truck engines is expected to increase to more than 40%. Weichai has more obvious advantages in the field of commercial vehicle core powertrain than before. By the end of 2022, the company will have more room for growth after upgrading the non road to the fourth national highway. Significant multi business synergy: 1) significantly improve the supporting facilities for heavy and light trucks of Heavy Truck Group of Heavy Truck Group, and strengthen cooperation with Lovol heavy industry; 2) Large bore engine and hydraulic power assembly will gradually play a higher value. Weichai has broken through the core technology of three power assemblies of commercial vehicles, engineering machinery and agricultural equipment, and has strong system matching advantages.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: it is expected that the sales volume of heavy truck industry will decline to about 1 million units in 2022, with a decline rate of 28%. Weichai's engine market share is expected to rise significantly, mainly due to the increase in the supporting proportion of Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.Ltd(000951) and the scale effect of engine leaders under the background of emission upgrading. In addition, due to the recovery of Kaiao, the company is expected to outperform the industry. According to the latest situation, we adjusted the company's performance forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 / 2023 will be 7.7/10.2 billion respectively (the original forecast value is 11.3/12.4 billion), and the predicted value of net profit in 2024 will be 11.2 billion for the first time. The company has a solid leading position in the field of core accessories of truck industry chain such as engine and gearbox. Combined with profit forecast and current valuation level, we maintain the "recommended" rating of the company.
Risk tips: 1) the decline of heavy truck industry exceeded expectations; 2) Price increase of upstream raw materials: if the price of upstream raw materials increases, it will have a certain impact on the cost and profitability of the company; 3) The popularization of new energy technology is less than expected. The company has invested a lot of resources in the field of new energy, but limited to that the technology and products are not mature enough. If the promotion of fuel cell engine is less than expected, it may have a negative impact on future performance.
