\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 658 Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) )
Event: on March 30, Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) released its annual report for 2021, and achieved annual revenue / profit before provision / net profit attributable to parent company of 318.76/128.19/76.17 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 11.4% / 8.3% / 18.6% respectively. ROA and roe reached 0.64% and 11.86% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 0.04 and 0.02pct. Comments are as follows: the annual revenue and net profit achieved rapid growth In Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) 21, the growth rates of revenue and net profit were 11.4% and 18.6% respectively. The profit achieved rapid growth. The main contributions include: 1) the scale grew steadily, and the loan balance increased by 12.9% year-on-year at the end of 21; 2) Non interest income grew rapidly, of which the net income from handling fees and commissions increased by 33.4% year-on-year, and the net income from other non interest income increased by 67.6% year-on-year; 3) Due to the improvement of asset quality, the decline of non-performing generation rate and the forward-looking provision in the same period of last year, the company’s credit impairment loss decreased by 7.46% year-on-year, the loan impairment loss decreased by 45.15% year-on-year, and the effect of credit cost and provision back feeding profit was obvious.
Asset structure optimization, deposit pricing reform and gradual release of dividends contributed to the stability of net interest margin Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) 21 year net interest margin was 2.36%, down 6BP year on year; Mainly due to the decline in loan pricing, the average interest payment rate of deposits increased. The company mainly alleviates the pressure of interest margin narrowing through active asset liability management. Asset side: increase the supply of credit assets and optimize the loan structure Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) deposit loan ratio is lower than that of comparable peers, and there is a large space for structural optimization. In recent years, the company has continuously increased the proportion of loans, especially high-yield retail loans. The average balance of loans accounted for 53.62% of the average balance of total assets in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 1.96 PCT; The average balance of personal loans accounted for 57.55% of the average balance of total loans, with a year-on-year increase of 1.88 PCT; The deposit loan ratio increased by 1.65 PCT to 56.84% year-on-year, which still has great room for improvement compared with comparable peers. Liability side: benefiting from the dividend of deposit pricing reform, the deposit cost is expected to decline. The dividend from the reform of deposit pricing mechanism last year is expected to be gradually realized this year, while Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) deposits account for 96% and benefit a wider range. In addition, the company took the initiative to reduce long-term and high-cost deposits and undertook them with financial management and funds. The deposit structure has also been optimized, and the deposit cost is expected to decrease. With the optimization of asset liability structure and the release of dividends from deposit pricing reform, the net interest margin is expected to remain stable.
The wealth management strategy was further promoted, driving the rapid growth of retail AUM and medium income Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) is positioned as “agriculture, rural areas and farmers”, urban and rural residents and small and medium-sized enterprises. Relying on the “self support + agency” model, it is deeply cultivated in the county, with distinctive retail characteristics. Since 2019, the company has made greater efforts to promote the construction of wealth management system, strengthen the hierarchical operation of customers, establish a team of professional financial managers, improve product line and comprehensive financial services, and promote the construction of investment and research capacity. With the upgrading of the wealth management system, consignment, credit card, trusteeship, investment banking and other businesses have gradually developed, and the medium income has achieved rapid growth. In the 21st year, the net income from handling fees and commissions was 22.007 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.42%; Among them, the revenue from agency business increased by 88.67% year-on-year. By the end of the 21st century, there were 3.5621 million wealth customers, an increase of 24.12% over the end of the previous year; Retail a um reached 12.53 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 11.40%. The quality of assets has been continuously improved and the provision is sufficient. The non-performing stock and generation indicators were improved. By the end of the 21st century, Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) NPL ratio was 0.82%, down 6BP from the end of the previous year. The generation rate of non-performing loans was 0.60%, a year-on-year decrease of 19bp. The concerned loan ratio was 0.47%, a decrease of 6BP compared with the end of the previous year, and the potential non-performing pressure was small. The provision coverage rate was 418.61%, an increase of 10.55 PCT over the end of the previous year. The provision was sufficient and there was room for performance release.
Investment suggestion: Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) retail has distinct characteristics and has higher growth compared with other large state-owned banks. Under the “self support + agency” operation mode, the company’s network channels are deeply sinking, the customer base is solid, and the debt advantage is stable; There is a large space for asset side structure optimization and mining, and it is expected to stabilize the asset side yield and net interest margin through structural adjustment. The further promotion of wealth management strategy and strong customer base are expected to drive the rapid growth of medium income. At the same time, the quality of assets is solid, and there is more room for the release of provisions. We expect that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will increase by 18.8%, 16.8% and 13.5% year-on-year, corresponding to BVPs of 7.56, 8.35 and 9.25 yuan / share respectively. Optimistic about the room for roe improvement brought by the improvement of the company’s system and mechanism in the future, give twice the 2022 Pb, corresponding to the target price of 7.56 yuan / share, and maintain the “strongly recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the economic stall and downturn lead to the deterioration of asset quality; Unexpected changes in regulatory policies, etc.
