\u3000\u3000 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) )
Event: on March 30, 2022, the company released the annual report of 2021.
The performance fell sharply, mainly due to the decline of gross profit margin and the decrease of investment income. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 452.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only 8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 22.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.7%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 22.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 44.4%. The decline in net profit was mainly due to: (1) the decline in gross profit margin, with an overall gross profit margin of 21.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 7.4pct; The gross profit margin after tax was 17.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6pct; (2) The proportion of net investment income in income decreased by 1.7pcdt to 1.5% year-on-year; (3) 3.53 billion yuan of asset impairment losses were accrued, reducing the net profit of equity by 2.55 billion yuan; (4) The proportion of minority shareholders' profit and loss in net profit increased by 10.8pct to 40.8% year-on-year.
Sales fell by 10.8% year-on-year, showing a slight decline. The company's sales volume in 2021 was 627.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8%; The sales area was 38.078 million m3, a year-on-year decrease of 18.4%; The average price was 16487 yuan / flat, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%. Advances received amounted to 638.2 billion yuan, exceeding the sales amount of the current year, and the collection performance was better than the sales performance. From a regional perspective, Shanghai, South China and Beijing are the main contributing regions, with sales accounting for 35.7%, 23.1% and 14.7% respectively. The contract amount / area of the company's sold and outstanding resources are 710.8 billion yuan / 46.74 million m3 respectively, and the multiple of settlement income / area is 1.8/1.5 times.
New land acquisition is reduced, and the total soil storage is relatively abundant. In 2021, the company increased the land price of land storage rights and interests by 140.2 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1.4% year-on-year; The planned construction area of equity is 19.01 million m3, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%, which can not cover the sales of that year, and is in the stage of net reduction of soil storage. As of the end of the reporting period, the company's projects under construction and planning had a total capacity of 148.89 million m3, a year-on-year decrease of 6%, the equity ratio was 62.7%, covering 4.8 times the settlement area. In addition, there was a total capacity of 5.35 million m3 in the old transformation, and the total soil storage was still relatively abundant.
The three red lines are green, and the dividend proportion is increased. At the end of 2021, the net debt ratio of the company was 29.7%, the asset liability ratio excluding advance was 69.8%, the cash short debt ratio was 2.5 times, and the three red lines turned green. The financing cost was reduced to 4.11%, and the net operating cash flow was positive for 13 consecutive years. The total monetary cash of the company is 149.4 billion yuan, including 8.6 billion yuan of restricted funds and 53.9 billion yuan of pre-sale regulatory funds, with a total restricted proportion of 42%. In 2021, the company plans to pay a cash dividend of RMB 11.28 billion, accounting for 50% of the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021, an increase from 35% in 2020.
The revenue of everything cloud exceeds 20 billion, and the expansion speed is increased. In 2021, the revenue of all things cloud was 24 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 32.1%. The new contract area accounted for more than 70% of the foreign expansion business, of which the business writing foreign expansion accounted for nearly 80%. The business has expanded from a single traditional residential service to the troika of community, commercial enterprises and urban space services. The logistics business has maintained high growth. Wanwei logistics has a compound growth rate of 52% in recent three years. Its revenue in 2021 is 3.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 69%. The noi in the stable period reaches 6.5%. The leasable area is 11.36 million square meters, including 1.38 million square meters of cold chain storage.
Investment suggestion: we believe that with the negative performance of the annual report, the company is expected to achieve positive growth in net profit in 2022. In addition, the company's diversified businesses are developing rapidly, and the listing of all things cloud is on the way. We believe that if all things cloud is successfully listed, the company's balance sheet will be greatly improved and the leverage space will be increased. We predict that the company's operating revenue in 22 / 23 / 24 years will be 4977.4/5279.6/544.61 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 257.1/283.6/30.87 billion yuan, the corresponding diluted EPS will be 2.21/2.44/2.66 yuan / share, and the current stock price will correspond to the 22-year dynamic pe8.8 Seven times. We believe that the reasonable market value of the company is 308.5 billion yuan, corresponding to the target price of 26.5 yuan / share, corresponding to 12 times of Pe2 in 2022, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations, the settlement progress was lower than expected, the improvement of gross profit margin was less than expected, and the expansion of diversified business was less than expected.
