\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 241 Goertek Inc(002241) )
The zero sum coordination strategy continued to advance, enjoyed the dividend of consumer electronics innovation, and maintained the “buy” rating
The company announced in its 2021 annual report that the operating revenue was 78.22 billion yuan, yoy + 35.5%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 4.28 billion yuan, yoy + 50.1%. At the same time, the company predicts that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022q1 is 870 ~ 970 million yuan, deducting 840 ~ 900 million yuan of non attributable net profit, yoy + 40 ~ 50%, which is mainly affected by factors such as changes in the fair value of kopin Corporation’s equity investment. We lowered the profit forecast for 20222023 and added the profit forecast for 2024. It is expected that the company will realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 5.91/73.7 (previous value of 59.4 / 87.2) / 8.58 billion, yoy + 38.2% / 24.8% / 16.4%, EPS of RMB 1.73/2.16 (previous value of 1.74 / 2.55) / 2.51, and the current share price corresponding to PE is 19.9/15.9/13.7 times. Considering the starting volume of the company’s VR new terminal, the “buy” rating is maintained.
VR terminal volume, intelligent hardware business to establish the company’s second growth curve
In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company was 14.1%, which was affected by the switching of business structure, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.9pct, a net profit margin of 5.5%, yoy + 0.6 PCT, and the turnover rate of fixed assets increased year-on-year and reached 4.8 times. Among them, the revenue of intelligent hardware, intelligent acoustic machine and precision parts and components accounted for 41.9% / 38.7% / 17.7% (30.6% / 46.2% / 21.1% in 2020), and the corresponding gross profit accounted for 41.3% / 28.3% / 28.9% (23.8% / 42.8% / 31.5% in 2020). The intelligent hardware business is expected to establish the second growth curve. Driven by the increase of product shipments, the gross profit margin rose to 13.9%, yoy + 1.4 PCT, and the proportion of the company’s largest customer decreased from 48.1% in 2020 to 42.5%, and the dependence decreased. Combined with the company’s past precision manufacturing technology reserves in the fields of acoustics, optics and microelectronics and rich experience in project cooperation, the company is expected to transition to the backward mobile era.
2022q1 has a good performance index and enjoys the dividend of innovation terminal penetration period by virtue of zero integer synergy
The company has accumulated R & D in the AR / VR field for more than five years, and continues to invest and consolidate its technology and manufacturing capacity. In 2021, the R & D cost reached 4.17 billion yuan, yoy + 21.7%. Looking forward to the whole year of 2022, a hundred flowers bloom in the downstream customer camp, the VR terminal of North American customers is expected to continue to grow, the products of Japanese manufacturers usher in the replacement and supporting period, and Chinese manufacturers lead the trend of “content + hardware” products. The company is expected to meet the diversified positioning differences of customers and give full play to the business advantage of zero integer coordination at the manufacturing end of consumer electronic hardware.
Risk tip: the downstream VR product iteration is not as expected, the competition pattern of VR / AR assembly business deteriorates, the cost of upstream raw materials rises, and the risk of exchange loss.
