\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 219 Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) )
Core high-end products: high-end products enter the large-scale period, and the company’s early R & D investment and investment enter the harvest period
2021 is the year when the company’s high-end products began to increase in volume, and the proportion of high-end core products increased significantly, accounting for 12.66% of the company’s total sales of aluminum products, an increase of 6.66 percentage points over the same period last year; The gross profit of high-end products accounted for 19.8g% of the company’s total gross profit of aluminum products, an increase of 6.62 percentage points over the same period last year. In the future, with the release of production capacity of high-end products, the proportion of sales and profits of the company’s high-end products will be further improved.
(1) auto aluminum sector: the company is the only company in China that can produce passenger car aluminum sector on a large scale. It has formed business cooperation or certification with a well-known international new energy vehicle main engine factory, Weilai, GAC new energy, BAIC new energy, Audi, Daimler and other customers at home and abroad. In 2021, the production and sales of automobile aluminum sector were booming, and the sales volume exceeded 110000 tons. The company is accelerating the production capacity release process of automobile sector and the construction of the third and fourth production lines, so as to further consolidate the company’s position as a leading enterprise of automobile sector in China.
(2) battery aluminum foil: the company will build a 21000 ton high-performance power battery foil production line, which will be put into trial production in October 2021. After the project is completed, the company’s total annual output of high-performance power battery foil products will reach more than 30000 tons. The company focuses on the high-end market in the power battery aluminum foil sector, mainly 12um products, and 10um products are also supplied in a small amount. It has become one of the core suppliers of high-performance battery aluminum foil products in China.
(3) aviation board products: relying on the C919 project of domestic large aircraft, the company implements the policies of “localization of materials” and “independent control of materials”, and quickly layout the aviation field. The products supplied by the company are mature and stable, and have strong competitiveness in terms of quality, price and delivery time. It has been fully recognized by aircraft manufacturers. At present, it has been in the forefront of China’s aviation board market.
Alumina: the first phase of Indonesia alumina project was put into operation, and the second phase was accelerated to increase resource guarantee
From August to October 2021, alumina prices rose rapidly, eroding the profits of some pure electrolytic aluminum enterprises. However, due to the company’s original 1.4 million tons of alumina production capacity in China, it can partially stabilize the profit fluctuation. The company’s 1 million ton alumina project in Indonesia phase I was put into trial production in May 2021 and successfully reached production in September 2021, which has become a new source of profit for the company. The 1 million ton alumina project in Indonesia phase II under construction is expected to be put into operation next year. After the second phase is put into operation, it will further reduce costs and increase resource guarantee. A higher self-sufficiency rate will also reduce the volatility of the company’s performance.
Recycled aluminum: guaranteed recycling reduces carbon emissions in the industrial chain, and cost reduction and efficiency increase are expected to contribute to new growth points
Under the dual carbon policy, recycled aluminum has attracted extensive attention from the industry. The company invests in the construction of a subsidiary of recycled aluminum, which is engaged in the processing and treatment of metal waste and debris. The recycling source is the process waste of tank body, tank cover and automobile sector production plant as the main material. After the completion of the project, it can further ensure the supply of raw materials and reduce carbon emissions. At the same time, grade protection and recycling can improve the utilization rate of recycled aluminum and reduce production costs. The project has obtained various government approval procedures before construction, including environmental impact assessment, energy assessment and safety assessment. The land leveling work has been completed, and the plant foundation construction is advancing in an orderly manner. After completion, it will reduce costs and increase efficiency and contribute new growth points to performance.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 4.44 billion yuan, 5.196 billion yuan and 5.628 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 30.17%, 17.02% and 8.33%, corresponding to 10.96 times, 9.36 times and 8.644 times of PE. Considering the rapid increase in the proportion of high-end products and the strength of policies related to steady growth in 2022, the company has both steady growth and cycle flexibility, and maintains the “buy” rating.
