\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 633 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) )
2021 performance announcement: the company’s operating revenue increased by + 32% year-on-year to RMB 136.4 billion, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by + 25% year-on-year to RMB 6.73 billion, and the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by + 10% year-on-year to RMB 4.2 billion (corresponding to the net profit of single vehicle decreased by – 5% year-on-year to RMB 3281 in 2021); Among them, 4q21’s operating revenue was + 11% year-on-year / month on month + 58%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was – 36% year-on-year / month on month + 26%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was – 72% year-on-year / month on month – 32% (corresponding to 4q21’s single vehicle profit after deduction was – 70% year-on-year / month on month – 55% to RMB 1385). 4q21 performance is dragged down by the number of employees and salary increase / year-end bonus expense accrual, Euler user charging equity accrual, equity incentive expense accrual and other factors.
Focus on category innovation and brand upward switching: affected by tight supply chain, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) cumulative sales volume in the first two months of 2022 increased from – 20% to 183000 vehicles year-on-year; In addition, in view of the rising cost of raw materials, the current good cat pricing has been raised by RMB 6 Jiangnan Mould & Plastic Technology Co.Ltd(000700) 0, and the black cat / white cat has stopped receiving orders. We judge that 1) tight chip supply + rising costs lead to the redistribution of internal vehicle resources. 2) The management focuses on category innovation and brand upward switching; Among them, the demand for medium and high-end off-road SUV tank brands is improving. Euler brand new models / salon brand and wey brand dhtphev plan to move up the pricing of pure electric and plug-in hybrid markets respectively. 3) We are optimistic about the steady growth prospect of sales driven by the improvement of 2h22e chip supply and the boost of new models. The head independent car enterprises are expected to usher in the opportunity of brand upward switching under this round of intelligent electrification cycle, and are optimistic about the long-term strategic direction of the company. We expect that market segmentation, category innovation, sales volume and capital may remain the core; Among them, whether the upward switching of Euler / wey brand can succeed or not is the key.
Organizational structure transformation, strengthening one car, one brand and one company: Great Wall has carried out and continuously optimized organizational structure transformation, and has successively realized multi-dimensional and clear product matrix layout and positioning from brand to series and then to models; In addition, further strengthen the construction of talent echelon and work enthusiasm. We are optimistic about the promotion of Great Wall’s organizational mechanism reform, the transformation of strategic concept with users as the core, the adjustment of business operation modes from B2B to C2B, and the positioning of globalization / full stack self-study of automatic assisted driving. We expect that the precise positioning of user segments + the introduction of intelligent electrification functions and the acceleration of model iteration cycle are expected to drive the steady rise of ASP, and the scale effect will drive the decline of single vehicle production cost (vs. the expansion of R & D investment). We judge that great wall is in the head camp of the transformation of traditional automobile enterprises in terms of power system technology innovation and automatic driving promotion, and is expected to be one of the traditional automobile enterprises most likely to succeed in the transformation of intelligent electrification.
Maintain the “overweight” rating of a / H shares: in view of the fluctuation of raw material costs, the net profit attributable to the parent company of 2022e / 2023e is reduced by 13% / 13% to RMB 9.26 billion / 12.28 billion respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company of 2024e is expected to be about RMB 15.9 billion. In view of the shortage of 2h22e chips, improve the marginal improvement prospect corresponding to the boost of new models, and maintain the “overweight” rating of a / H shares.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials rises; Supply chain shortages such as chips are less than expected; The launch and sales volume of new models are lower than expected; Accrual of equity incentive and other expenses; Repeated outbreaks; Market / financial risk.
