\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 032 Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) )
Event: Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) released the 2021 annual report. The company achieved a revenue of 21.585 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 16.07%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.944 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.29%. Among them, the single quarter revenue of 2021q4 was 5.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.87%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 703 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.16%. The company plans to pay a cash dividend of 1.6 billion yuan, with a dividend ratio of 80.29%. We estimate that the growth rate of Q4 domestic sales revenue is about 12%, which is higher than that of export sales by 10%.
From the revenue side, the company still has the ability to expand products, significantly improve the efficiency of domestic sales channels, and the transfer of export SEB orders has increased rapidly. In terms of categories, the company still has the ability to expand products. In the past 21 years, the company has launched cost-effective single products in emerging categories such as water cup appliances, household appliances and kitchen and bathroom power, and the logic of “big brand low price” continues to run through. From the perspective of channels, the reform of direct marketing + the construction of “one inventory” mode of e-commerce continued to improve the channel operation efficiency, and the proportion of domestic direct marketing increased by 9.68pct to 12.85% year-on-year. From a regional perspective, the income from domestic / export sales increased by 10.8% / 27.91% to 14.3 billion yuan / 7.3 billion yuan respectively. According to the forecast announcement of daily related party transactions in 2022 issued by the company, the annual sales amount of goods to SEB group is expected to be RMB 7.6 billion, an increase of 10.09% over the actual sales in 2021, slightly exceeding the expectation.
From the profit side, the rise in the price of raw materials leads to short-term pressure on the profit side. Gross profit side: the company’s gross profit margin fell 3.42pct to 23% year-on-year in 21 years, mainly due to the rise in the price of major raw materials and the adjustment of accounting standards. Under the same caliber, the comprehensive gross profit margin of the current period fell slightly by 0.38pct. Among them, the gross profit margin of domestic / export sales decreased by 2.27pct/4.77pct to 27.14% / 14.93% respectively year-on-year; The gross profit margin of electrical appliances / cookers decreased by 2.91pct/5.15pct to 21.67% / 26.07% year-on-year respectively. We estimate that the gross profit margin of domestic electrical appliances and cooking utensils of the company decreased to 24.7% and 33.5% in 21 years. If the same caliber is considered, it will be basically the same. Rate side: affected by the adjustment of accounting standards, the sales expense rate decreased by 2.57pct to 8.85% year-on-year. According to the company’s 21-year performance express, under the same caliber, the company increased the investment of e-commerce promotion expenses, advertising expenses and other marketing resources, resulting in a year-on-year increase of 0.47pct in the sales expense rate in this period. Net profit side: on the whole, the company’s 21-year return to parent net profit margin fell slightly by 0.92pct to 9.01% year-on-year.
With the promotion of channel reform, the transformation of demand insight and the transformation of marketing efficiency, the growth of the company’s revenue side is worry free. From the perspective of effect, 1) the company’s strong categories have pricing power again, and the share of emerging categories has increased significantly; 2) Accelerate the pace of promoting new products, strengthen the ability of consumers to solve pain points, and continue to promote the high-end of advantageous categories; 3) Layout of new media, clearer marketing expense policy, and higher communication efficiency between brand and dealers.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. In essence, the company’s export is the pricing power brought by the production efficiency in the SEB system. The traditional categories at the domestic revenue end are in the strong stage of the competition pattern, and the emerging categories continue to contribute to the increment. At the same time, the channel efficiency is expected to further improve the profit margin. The company’s short-term performance is highly deterministic, there is no need to worry too much about the medium-term competition pattern, and the ability to expand products at low prices of long-term big brands remains. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 24 will be RMB 2.395/27.663187 billion, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the cost of raw materials continues to rise, the competition pattern worsens, and the promotion of innovation is less than expected
