\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 352 S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) )
Event: on March 30, 2022, the company released its annual report for 2021. The annual revenue in 2021 was 207.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.6%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.7%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 1.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 70.1%. In the fourth quarter, the revenue was 71.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 60.7%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 2.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 43.0%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent was 1.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 46.1%. The overall performance is in line with the previous forecast.
Q4 performance met expectations and maintained a quarterly improvement trend in profits throughout the year. In 2021, the number of SF components reached 10.55 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 29.7% and a market share of 9.7%. Quarterly deduction of non attributable net profit: – 11.3/6.6/8.1/1.5 billion yuan, with quarterly operation improvement. Q4 net profit after deducting 370 million from Kerry consolidated statement was 1.13 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 10% and a month on month increase of + 40%. It was observed that the non net profit margins deducted by Q1-Q4 SF were – 2.7%, 1.4%, 1.7% and 2.1% respectively, and the profitability improved quarter by quarter.
The operation of core express business is stable, and the process of turning losses in new business is accelerated. In 2021, the revenue of time effective express + 7.3%, the revenue of economic express + 54.7%, the growth rate of time effective express is stable and the structure of economic express is optimized; Express + 25.6%, intra city + 59.1%, supply chain and international + 200%, and new business maintained rapid growth. In terms of business profit, in 2021, the net profit of express segment was 3.83 billion yuan, express – 580 million yuan, intra city – 900 million yuan, supply chain and international 610 million yuan (mainly due to Kerry merger). Express was greatly affected by Q1 investment. Subsequently, with the improvement of capacity utilization, four networks financing and other fine management and cost control measures, the profitability continued to improve; We estimate that 21h2 has crossed the breakeven point, the gross profit margin of the same city has become positive, and the profit of international yinkerry merger has increased significantly.
In 2022, the company is expected to operate steadily and pursue healthy profits. In 2021, the company continued to change, such as implementing cost improvement projects such as four networks financing, and paying more attention to the input-output ratio. From the cost side, the rate of management, sales and R & D expenses decreased. In 2022, we will pay more attention to healthy business quality. We expect the profitability of core business to rise steadily, and new business is expected to further turn around losses. In the second half of the year, business growth points such as Ezhou airport, Kerry Logistics and international coordination will also gradually appear.
The short-term company is at the low point of fundamentals and expectations, and the safety margin of the bottom range is sufficient. 1) The short-term epidemic had an impact on the company’s operation. After March 10, the new round of epidemic in China intensified, and about 17% of the company’s outlets suspended dispatching during the peak period. Since then, with the easing of the epidemic, the outlets continued to recover, and the business volume showed a recovery trend. At the same time, the oil price rose rapidly and the killing cost rose in March. The company was in a short-term fundamentals and expectations, which fell to a low point, but the worst impact was basically over, We are optimistic about the delayed release of demand and the adjustment of the company’s continuous operation to release its business resilience; 2) As the only comprehensive logistics leading enterprise in China, the company has fully digested the valuation and sufficient safety margin at the bottom.
Investment suggestion: the short-term operation adjustment of the company is in place, the main business of express delivery is stable, and the loss items are controllable. Under the business idea of giving priority to profits, the performance is expected to improve quarter by quarter. From the perspective of M & A and timeliness, the international logistics chain of e-mail will gradually enter a new stage of steady growth, and the competitiveness of e-mail and e-mail will be gradually strengthened from the perspective of M & A and timeliness. It is expected that e-mail and e-mail will gradually enter a new stage of production. In the long run, SF is expected to grow into a global integrated logistics service provider giant and continue to be optimistic about the company’s competitiveness. It is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 7.52 billion yuan, 10.19 billion yuan and 13.92 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 30x, 22x and 16x PE from 2022 to 2024. Maintain the “Buy-A” rating.
Risk warning: capital expenditure investment exceeds expectations; The growth rate of express delivery slowed down; Cost control is less than expected; The improvement of capacity utilization is less than expected; New business expansion is less than expected.
