\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 850 Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) )
Key investment points
In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 542 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 203.19%, in line with market expectations. In 2021, the company’s revenue was 4.468 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.06%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 542 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 203.19%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 515 million, with a year-on-year increase of 218.4%; The gross profit margin in 21 years was 26.25%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.91pct; The net interest rate was 12.21%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.28pct. Previously, the company predicted that the annual net profit attributable to the parent company was 520570 million yuan, which was in the median of the performance forecast, in line with market expectations. In 2021q4, the revenue increased month on month, and the gross profit margin decreased month on month due to financial adjustment. In 2021, Q4 company achieved a revenue of 1.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 93.66%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 167 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 108.15%.
The downstream demand is strong. The annual revenue in 2021 is 4.468 billion yuan, with an annual growth of more than 125%. It is expected to maintain a growth of more than double in 2022. The net profit margin of the company remained 12% in 2021, mainly due to the improvement of production efficiency and automation, and the layout of the company’s upstream resources magnesium and aluminum offset the impact of the rise of some raw materials, so the profitability has strong pressure resistance. Among them, the net profit margin of Q4 sales was 11.29%, down 2pct month on month, mainly due to the profit pressure caused by the rapid rise of 2021q4 aluminum price. We expect that the profitability is expected to remain about 12% in 2022 as the cost is transmitted to the downstream.
The company has a huge production capacity planning, and its core customers are locked in the nearest supporting facilities. The output value is expected to continue to double in 2022. The construction of the company’s production capacity has been accelerated. Huizhou, Liyang, Dalian and Ningde bases have been built by the end of 2021. We expect the nominal output value to exceed 8 billion yuan. 2022h1 company has newly added overseas bases in Germany, Sweden and Hungary, and the production capacity of Huizhou phase III, Yibin base, Ningde phase II and Liyang phase II of the company has been put into operation. By the end of 2022, Jingmen new base will be put into operation, and we expect the total output value to exceed 15 billion yuan. We expect the company’s revenue to reach 10 billion yuan in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 120% +.
4680 large cylinder is an important industrialization direction. We expect to partially replace the share of soft pack batteries, and it is expected to start industrialization in 2022. The company has a leading layout in the field of large cylindrical structural parts and has been designated by major Chinese and international customers. We expect large-scale production in 2022. The increase in the penetration rate of large cylindrical batteries will expand the market space of structural parts on the one hand, and increase the single GWH value on the other hand. Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) has the leading technology in this field, which will fully benefit. In terms of customers, the company will be put into operation in three major bases in Europe in 2022, supporting Samsung Hungary factory, northvolt Sweden factory and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) Germany factory. At the same time, the company’s products will be exported to the U.S. market in 2022, which will contribute significantly to the increase, and the expansion of overseas markets will accelerate in 2023.
Profit forecast and investment rating: in view of the continuous high outlook of the industry and the huge accelerated planning of the company’s production capacity, we raised the net profit attributable to the parent company from 1.12/1.68 billion yuan to 1.23/2.01 billion yuan in 20222023. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 will be 2.9 billion yuan, corresponding to 5.29/8.62/12.46 yuan of EPS in 20222024, with a year-on-year increase of 128% / 63% / 45%. The current market value corresponds to 29x / 18x / 12x PE from 2022 to 2024, giving 45xpe in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 238.1 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is less than expected, the policy is less than expected, and the competition is intensified.
