\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 240 Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) )
Event: the company released the annual report and performance forecast. In 2021, the company's revenue was 2.934 billion and net profit was 851 million. The net profit in 2022q1 is expected to be 900-11 billion yuan.
The growth logic is clear and the performance growth is bright. In 2021, the revenue was 2.934 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.88%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 851 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 303029%. In 2021q4, the revenue was 1.075 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 244.93% and a month on month increase of 48.03%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 312 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 143653% and a month on month increase of 26.18%.
The company expects that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022q1 will be RMB 900-11 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 765.24% - 957.52% and a month on month increase of 188.2% - 252.2%.
Optimistic about the company's large-scale logic and high growth certainty. In 2021, the 40000 ton project of Zhiyuan lithium industry was put into full operation. The annual lithium salt output was 40200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 90.5%, the sales volume was 42100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 108.9%, and the company's inventory decreased from 3247 tons to 1441 tons.
The lithium salt project is gradually put into operation. It is expected to achieve an output of 60000 tons in 2022. The company plans to produce 200000 tons of lithium salt in the long term. The company's existing capacity is Zhiyuan (25000 tons of lithium carbonate + 15000 tons of lithium hydroxide), Suining Shengxin 30000 tons have been completed and put into operation in January 2022, Indonesia (IMP) 60000 tons of lithium salt project is expected to be put into operation in H2 in 2023, and the company's lithium salt equity output is expected to be 536 / 61600 tons from 2022 to 2023, and the long-term company's planned capacity will reach 200000 tons.
At present, Shengxin's equity resources are 715000 tons of LCE equivalent. It is expected that the underwriting + self production will meet 50% of the lithium salt production in 2022. (1) The company's output of yelonggou lithium concentrate in 2021 is 41800 tons. It is estimated that the output in 2022 will be 70000 tons, equivalent to about 10000 tons of LCE. The cost of yelonggou lithium concentrate is about 3000 yuan. (2) Sabixing has a planned raw ore capacity of 700000 T / A, corresponding to 200000 t / a lithium concentrate. It is expected to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2022. (3) The company signed a long-term agreement with Galaxy resources and avz to underwrite 60000 tons and 160000 tons of lithium concentrate respectively. (4) The company also has the right to operate sdla Salt Lake, with a production capacity of 2500 tons of LCE equivalent.
Together with Guocheng, Jinxin's production recovery is expected to accelerate. Shengxin has reached strategic cooperation with Guocheng, and Jinxin gives priority to selling lithium concentrate not less than 50% of Jinxin mining's output to Shengxin. According to the disclosure of Zhonghe shares in 2015, the lithium oxide reserve of Jinxin dangba is 660000 tons, and the production capacity of lithium refined powder is 20000 tons / year. In 2015, Zhonghe is also planning to invest in the construction of 1.6 million T / a spodumene mining and beneficiation project expansion project.
2.89% of Chilean lithium industry and 1.42 million tons of LCE in arizaro. In January 2022, the company subscribed for 2.89% equity of Chilean lithium industry. Chilean lithium industry owns the mining right of arizaro salt lake. The proved resource of arizaro Salt Lake is about 1.42 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent. At present, the proved area accounts for 29% of the total mining right area. Chilean lithium industry plans to invest US $2 million within six months to further strengthen exploration to expand resources.
Join hands with Byd Company Limited(002594) , to build a model of industrial chain coordination. On March 22, 2022, the company announced that it plans to introduce Byd Company Limited(002594) as a strategic investor through non-public offering of shares, and Byd Company Limited(002594) will hold more than 5% of Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) shares after issuance. Shengxin and Byd Company Limited(002594) also signed a strategic cooperation agreement and reached an agreement on future purchase orders, new lithium battery technology and development of high-quality mineral resources
3 billion to supplement cash flow and ensure the purchase of lithium concentrate in the future. At present, the price of lithium concentrate is close to US $3000. It is expected that Q2 lithium concentrate will further rise to US $4000. The company is expected to need 500000 tons of lithium concentrate for the whole year, which has a great impact on the company's cash flow. Shengxin's non-public offering plans to raise a total of about 3 billion yuan, which can effectively supplement cash flow.
Industrial chain coordination is expected to become a trend and build a win-win upstream and downstream. The high price of lithium has affected the normal production of downstream, and the Ministry of industry and information technology began to call for direct connection between upstream and downstream. Overseas Tesla and others continue to sign nickel lithium supply contracts; China Ningde and GuoXuan are also expanding upstream to ensure resource supply. In the future, industrial chain integration is expected to become a trend, the downstream raw materials are guaranteed, and the upstream growth attribute is strengthened to form a win-win situation.
Investment suggestion: we are optimistic about the large amount of lithium salt in Shengxin in the future, and the growth certainty of the company is high. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 is RMB 3.767/39.39/4.217 billion, the corresponding EPS is RMB 4.53/4.55/4.87, and the corresponding PE is 12.48/11.94/11.15 times. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the demand is less than expected, and the lithium price falls sharply.
