\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 238 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) )
Key investment points
Key points of announcement: Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) achieved a revenue of 75.676 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 19.82%; The annual net investment income was 11.814 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 19.21%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.335 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 22.95%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was 5.977 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 24.33%. 2021q4 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) achieved a revenue of 20.163 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 0.77% / – 3.71% respectively; The net investment income was 3.53 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 57.10% / + 98.20% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.051 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 112.81% / + 116.58% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was 1.401 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 216.08% / + 163.35% respectively.
Q4 net profit attributable to parent company increased significantly on a month on month basis, mainly due to the increase of gross profit margin superimposed on the increase of investment income contributed by joint venture. 1) Under the influence of sales volume scale effect + product structure improvement, the gross profit margin improved month on month. In 2021q4, GAC motor sold 105800 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 10.74% / + 50.61% respectively; GAC ea’an sold 41600 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 96.01% / + 16.55% respectively. The gross profit margin of Q4 sales was 10.27%, which was + 0.83 / + 2.38pct on a month on month basis, and the sales volume of M6 / M8 and other models increased significantly. The revenue of H1 single car of its own brand was 110600 yuan / vehicle, which was + 3.49% / + 1.42% on a month on month basis. The overall cost control is good. Q4 sales / management / R & D expense rates were 5.81% / 6.18% / 1.13%, respectively -0.57 / -0.83 / -0.56pct year-on-year and -0.04 / + 1.60 / + 0.00pct month on month. 2) The sales volume of Q4 of Japanese joint venture improved significantly, and the investment income increased significantly month on month. The shortage of Q4 joint venture chips improved. The sales volume of GAC Honda Q4 was 231500, with a month on month ratio of – 9.28% / + 30.68%, and that of GAC Toyota Q4 was 244500, with a month on month ratio of + 10.36% / + 47.08%. Q4 realized a net investment income of 3.53 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 57.10% / + 98.20% respectively.
The independent “dual brand” differentiation strategy was implemented smoothly, and the model cycle of the joint venture was strong. 1) The mixed reform of gac-e’an has been carried out smoothly. At present, employee equity incentive, shareholding of scientific and technological personnel of GAC Research Institute and synchronous introduction of strategic investors have been implemented. In the follow-up, gac-e’an will start a round of financing and seek listing in selected places. In terms of products, aion series new energy vehicle product system B to C has achieved remarkable results, and the market recognition has been continuously improved. In 2023, the intelligent pure electric SUV built by Huawei will be mass produced, further boosting the brand and sales. 2) GAC motor adheres to the product strategy of “high appearance value + high technology + PVC leading + differentiated selling points”, and the product structure is continuously optimized under the strategy of “hybrid + intelligence”. 3) The joint venture continues to introduce new models and iterative products. In 2022, many new cars such as Saina, fenglanda and Weisa will be introduced. The product cycle is strong, the sales volume is expected to continue to improve, and continue to contribute to high net investment income.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the rise in the price of bulk raw materials & batteries and the shortage of chips, we lowered the expected return to parent net profit of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) 20222023 from 9.41 billion yuan to 9.11/11 billion yuan, and the expected performance in 2024 was 14.1 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.87/1.07/1.35 yuan and PE of 13 / 11 / 8 times in 20222024, maintaining the “buy” rating of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) .
Risk warning: epidemic control is lower than expected; The recovery of passenger car demand was lower than expected.
