\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 043 Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) )
The annual revenue grew steadily and the performance was brilliant. The company’s 2021 revenue is 3.89 billion yuan (YoY + 18.3%), the net profit attributable to the parent is 560 million yuan (YoY + 20.3%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent is 530 million yuan (YoY + 16.7%). In 2021q4, the single quarter revenue was 870 million yuan (YoY + 20.6%), the gross profit margin was 36.4% (yoy-2.2pct), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 110 million yuan (YoY + 9.5%), which was in line with the previous forecast of the company.
The supporting performance of food manufacturing business was improved, and the catering business expanded against the trend: 1) moon cake: the revenue of moon cake in 2021 was 1.52 billion yuan, which still maintained a high growth rate of 10.4% on the basis of the high base in 2020, and the revenue of Q4 single season moon cake was 230 million yuan (YoY + 73.7%); 2) Quick frozen food: in 2021, the revenue of quick frozen food was 850 million yuan (YoY + 9.4%), and the revenue of Q4 single season was 240 million yuan (YoY + 38.1%), which increased by 14.2% month on month with the cool weather; 3) Other food: revenue of 750 million yuan (YoY + 23.6%) in 2021. 4) Catering business: benefiting from the low catering base in 2020 and the consolidated statement of Haiyue taoju in July, the annual catering revenue was 720 million yuan (YoY + 48.3%). In 2021, seven new stores were opened and reopened against the trend, and six Haiyue taoju were merged, adding a total of 13 new stores.
The dealer channels have been continuously optimized, and the central and East China regions have gradually expanded: 1) from the perspective of channels, the direct sales in 2021 will be 1.69 billion yuan (YoY + 26.5%), of which the direct sales in Q4 will be 350 million yuan (YoY + 40.9%). In 2021, the sales revenue of distribution channels was 2.16 billion yuan (YoY + 12.6%). By the end of 2021, there were 1011 dealers, with a year-on-year net increase of 168, including 395 domestic and foreign dealers, with a year-on-year net increase of 112. 2) From a regional perspective: the company has been deeply engaged in Dawan district market. In 2021, the sales volume in Guangdong Province was 2.91 billion yuan (YoY + 19.3%), of which Q4 single quarter revenue was 670 million yuan (YoY + 56.4%); Due to the gradual expansion of channels in central and East China, the increase in the number of dealers and the gradual emergence of the construction results of e-commerce channels at home and abroad, the annual revenue was 890 million yuan (YoY + 16.1%), of which Q4 revenue was 190 million yuan (YoY + 3.7%).
The gross profit margin was stable and the expense rate improved year-on-year. The overall gross profit margin of the company in 2021 was 37.8% (yoy-1.5pct) and the single quarter gross profit margin in Q4 was 36.4% (yoy-2.2pct). We expect that it is mainly due to the increase in the proportion of low gross profit product revenue caused by the epidemic. In 2021, the sales expense rate and management expense rate were 9.3% (year-on-year + 0.1pct) and 9.7% (year-on-year -0.9pct) respectively. The revenue growth and throttling measures improved the management expense rate year-on-year.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the factors such as the slow recovery of catering business caused by repeated epidemic in 2022, the small year of moon cakes and the climbing of Meizhou quick-frozen production, we adjusted the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company to RMB 635 / 761 million in 202223 (the previous value was RMB 671 / 785 million), the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 was RMB 900 million, and the year-on-year growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company in 202224 was 13.8%, 19.9% and 18.2%. The current stock price corresponds to dynamic pe19, 16 and 13 times, Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: macroeconomic fluctuation risk; The risk of slowing down the expansion of food business such as moon cake and quick freezing; Production capacity construction is less than our expected risk; Food safety risks.
