\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 352 S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) )
The performance in 2021 was in line with expectations, and the profitability improved quarter by quarter. In 2021, the annual revenue was 207.19 billion yuan (+ 34.6%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.27 billion yuan (- 41.7%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 1.83 billion yuan (- 70.1%). In the fourth quarter, the single quarter revenue was 71.33 billion yuan (+ 60.7%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.47 billion yuan (+ 43.0%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 1.5 billion yuan (+ 46.1%). The performance of 2021 has been predicted before, and the overall performance of the performance is in line with the expectation. Among them, Kerry Logistics, which consolidated the statement in October of 21, contributed 370 million yuan of net profit deducted from the parent company. Excluding the impact of Kerry Logistics consolidated statement in the fourth quarter, SF 21q4 achieved about 1.13 billion yuan (+ 9.9%), and the deducted non profit in the quarter of last year improved quarter (Q1, Q2 and Q3 were – 11.3, 660 and 810 million yuan respectively).
Improve revenue quality, optimize cost control, control new business losses, and continuously repair profitability. The company’s profitability continued to improve in the last quarter (the gross profit margins of Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 were 7.2%, 12.8%, 13.5% and 14.5% respectively), mainly due to three aspects: 1) by adjusting the pricing strategy and actively optimizing the product structure and customer structure (gradually eliminating low-cost preferential and special products), the time effective express business with the strongest profitability achieved a stable growth of 7.3% and improved the quality of revenue. 2) Last year, the company promoted the four networks financing project, which helped the company optimize the cost of more than 600 million yuan; At the same time, the company has refined cost control and improved resource utilization. 3) The company took the initiative to eliminate the low-cost special products, the expansion speed of Fengwang is stable, and the economic express business has turned losses into profits at the gross profit of 21q4; The profit of express business segment narrowed to RMB 21.408 billion (h1.508 billion); The gross profit of the same city business for the whole year of 21 years has also been regularized.
Capital expenditure peaked and developed steadily in 2022. 2021 is the year of capital expenditure of the company, with an asset investment of 19.2 billion yuan. The investment direction of assets mainly includes sorting center, aircraft, warehouse, vehicles, land, etc. At this stage, the company’s overall capacity is sufficient and will be able to meet the business development needs for a long time in the future. We expect that the company’s capital expenditure will begin to decline in 2022. Considering the repeated epidemics in many parts of the country since March and the challenges of China’s economic environment, the main tone of the company’s development this year is steady. We expect that the company’s full year time express delivery is expected to continue the steady growth in the second half of last year. At the same time, the company will continue to enjoy the cost optimization benefits brought by four networks financing and refined operation, and SF’s performance is expected to be significantly repaired in 2022.
Risk tip: the epidemic situation in China has deteriorated; Oil prices rose more than expected; The growth of express delivery was lower than expected.
Investment suggestion: lower the profit forecast and maintain the “buy” rating.
The profit forecast is lowered. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 73.6/103.7/13.6 billion respectively (the adjustment range from 22 to 23 is – 5.3% / – 3.8%), with a year-on-year increase of 72% / 41% / 31% respectively. Through the segment valuation method, it is concluded that the reasonable valuation of the company in the next six months is about 60.1-62.2 yuan. The long-term growth logic of the company remains unchanged and the “buy” rating is maintained.
