\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 179 Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021, with an operating revenue of 12.867 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.86%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.991 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.35%.
The performance growth was in line with expectations, and the Q4 performance decreased month on month due to the delivery rhythm. In 2021, the operating revenue of the company was 12.867 billion yuan (YoY + 24.9%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.991 billion yuan (YoY + 38.4%). The increase of income and profit is mainly due to the increase of gross profit margin and the decrease of income tax expenses. Due to the changes in product structure brought about by the increase in the proportion of defense products, and the scale effect gradually appeared, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin was 37.0% in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 1.0pct.
1) on a quarterly basis, Q4 achieved revenue of 2.990 billion yuan (YoY + 13.3%) and net profit attributable to the parent company of 368 million yuan (YoY + 8.3%), down 6.9% and 27.7% respectively month on month basis. In terms of revenue, unlike the centralized delivery in the previous four quarters, the aviation field emphasizes more balanced production at this stage, and the product plan and production organization of main engine units and key customers will be adjusted accordingly. Therefore, Q4's revenue fluctuates slightly due to the impact of customers' delivery progress; In terms of profit, the company's profit margin in 2021q4 is roughly the same as that in the same period in 2020, with a decrease compared with 2021q3, which is mainly due to the company's Q4 unified calculation of annual salary and the period expenses reaching the highest level in the whole year.
2) in terms of products, electrical connectors and integrated components grew steadily throughout the year (YoY + 23.8%) and contributed the most revenue (accounting for 74.3%). Fluid, dental and other products have the fastest growth (YoY + 51.5%) due to their low base; In terms of business, the growth rate of defense field is fast; In the civil products business, the penetration rate in the field of new energy vehicles has been continuously improved, and the orders have doubled; In the field of communications, China's business is relatively stable, and international business has achieved substantial growth.
During this period, the cost is reasonably optimized, and scientific and technological innovation leads the industrial upgrading of the company. The expense rate during the period was 9.7%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.50PCT. R & D expenses increased by 35.7% year-on-year, and the R & D expense rate increased by 0.81 PCT to 10.2%. It is mainly invested in innovative products such as micro rectangular surface mount connectors, covering defense, communication, ocean, new energy and other application scenarios. The company's R & D capability has always been at the forefront of China. It is expected to continue to introduce new products to the market, improve market competitiveness and enhance the leading role of scientific and technological innovation in industrial upgrading.
Inventory and contract liabilities are high, and the rapid growth in the future can be expected. At the end of the 21st century, the company's inventory was 4.73 billion, an increase of 69.4% compared with the beginning of the period and 14.5% month on month, of which the inventory of goods increased by 79.8% compared with the beginning of the period; The company's contractual liabilities were 1.03 billion, an increase of 245.6% over the beginning of the period and 87.6% month on month. In addition, the company expects to sell 2.666 billion products to subordinate units of the aviation industry in 2022, an increase of 37.5% over the actual amount in 21 years. Superimposed on the company's inventory and contract liabilities, the company's rapid growth can be expected in the future.
The production capacity will be released gradually, and the downstream demand expansion will be effectively supported. At present, the production tasks of each business of the company are relatively full, and the capacity utilization rate is about 90%. As the optoelectronic technology industry base (phase II) is gradually fixed, the shortage of production capacity will be further alleviated. In addition, phase I of the company's South China industrial base project is expected to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2022; Luoyang basic device industrial park project is expected to be put into operation in 2024, and the downstream demand expansion will be effectively supported in the future.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.713 billion yuan, 3.385 billion yuan and 4.120 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 2.39 yuan, 2.98 yuan and 3.63 yuan respectively. The corresponding PE of the current stock price is 33x, 27x and 22x, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: the volume of military products in the 14th five year plan was lower than expected, and the capacity expansion was lower than expected.
