\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 043 Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) )
The performance meets the express report and maintains the “overweight” rating
The company achieved a revenue of 3.89 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 18.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 560 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.3%. We maintain the profit forecast for 2022. With the recovery of catering business in 2023, we raise the profit forecast for 2023 and add the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 6.4, 7.5 (+ 0.1) and 860 million yuan, EPS will be 1.12, 1.32 (+ 0.01) and 1.52 yuan, and the current share price corresponding to PE is 18.6, 15.8 and 13.7 times. In the future, driven by the two wheels of food and catering business, the company’s performance can grow steadily and maintain the “overweight” rating.
Moon cake, quick freezing and catering businesses continued to grow
In terms of business: (1) food: 2021q4 is included in some moon cake revenue, and the moon cake business has achieved growth, with a year-on-year increase of 22.6%; Meizhou base released production capacity, and the quick freezing business increased by 21.5% year-on-year; Other products increased by 10.1% year-on-year. (2) The catering business in 2021q4 increased by 28.7% year-on-year, and taotaoju contributed to the increase in consolidated statements. In terms of subregions, the revenue of domestic and foreign markets in 2021q4 increased by 28.7% and 4.9% respectively. In 2021, the number of dealers outside the province increased by 112 to 395, and the online channel made efforts, and the offline revenue increased by 39.9% year-on-year. 2021q4 is limited by the opening of the gate, and the production capacity of Meizhou base has not been fully released. Looking forward to 2022, with the further release of production capacity, the further improvement of omni-channel layout, the coordinated development inside and outside the province, and the continuous recovery of catering business, the company’s revenue can still grow steadily.
The decline in net profit margin in 2021q4 was mainly due to the decline in gross profit margin and sales expense rate
The net profit margin of 2021q4 decreased by 1.3pct to 13% year-on-year, mainly due to the decrease of gross profit margin by 2.2pct year-on-year and the increase of sales expense rate by 3.8pct. The decline of gross profit margin is mainly due to the upward pressure of cost; The increase of sales expense rate is mainly due to the investment expenses during the market development period. Looking forward to 2022, the company can alleviate the cost pressure by raising prices and other means; During the market development period, the cost investment is still large, but under the refined management, the rate is expected to be relatively stable and the net profit can increase steadily.
Based on the base market, explore the East China market, gradually improve the production capacity layout and boost growth
The company will deeply cultivate the South China market and explore the East China market. Likoufu and Great-Sun Foods Co.Ltd(603336) subsidiary honghuijiajiama set up a joint venture, which will help accelerate the layout of food business in East China. In addition, in 2022, the production capacity of Meizhou base will be gradually released, the technical transformation of Guangzhou and Maoming bases will continue, and the second phase of Xiangtan base is under planning, and the production capacity layout of the company will be further improved. The company has great development potential by alleviating the bottleneck of production capacity and steadily developing markets outside the province.
Risk tips: macroeconomic fluctuation risk, market expansion and competition risk, raw material price fluctuation risk, etc
