\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 219 Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) )
Key investment points
Event: Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) disclosed the annual report of 2021. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 28.725 billion yuan, an increase of 28.82% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 3.411 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.43%. Among them, the revenue of 21q4 was 8.340 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.58% and a month on month increase of 6.32%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 892 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.29%; In 2021q4, the non net profit deducted was 859 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.7%.
The company's products have been continuously optimized, and the proportion of high-end products has been rising. The company focuses on high value-added products such as automobile sector, aviation sector, power battery aluminum foil and so on. In 2021, the sales volume of the three high-end products accounted for 12.66%, with a year-on-year increase of 6.66 PCTs; Gross profit accounted for 19.89%, with a year-on-year increase of 6.62pcts. From the perspective of the company's disclosure caliber, 1) cold rolled coil / sector products mainly composed of automobile sector and tank cover material: the company's cold rolled coil / sector sales volume reached 900000 tons in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 16.22%. With the increase of 5001000 yuan in the processing cost of tank body and tank cover materials in 2021 and the appearance of the scale advantage of automobile sector, the gross profit per ton of cold rolled coil / sector increased from 4126 to 5133 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.39%; The gross profit margin reached 26.69%, up 1.14 PCTs year-on-year. 2) Aluminum foil products mainly including battery aluminum foil and packaging aluminum foil: the sales volume of the company's aluminum foil products was 59500 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 8.97%; As the processing fee of aluminum foil products increased by more than 10% in 2021, the gross profit per ton increased from 4577.8 to 5077.5 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.92%.
The three core businesses of automobile board, aviation board and lithium battery aluminum foil lead the company to set sail. 1) Automobile board: as the first supplier in China that can supply automobile board in batch and stably, the company has a production capacity of 200000 tons, a production capacity of 200000 tons under construction, and a long-term planned production capacity of 7 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 00000 tons. According to the company's disclosure, the sales volume of automobile sectors doubled year-on-year in 2021, and the annual output of automobile sectors is expected to reach about 110000 tons in 2021. At present, the company's automobile board is actively promoting business cooperation or certification with a well-known international new energy vehicle main engine factory, Weilai, GAC new energy, BAIC new energy, Audi, Daimler, GM, BMW, Nissan, Hyundai, Volvo, Ford, Jaguar Land Rover, rivian and other customers. 2) Battery aluminum foil: with the rapid development of new energy vehicles, the company accelerated the layout of battery aluminum foil business in 2019. The planned 21000 ton lithium battery aluminum foil project has been put into operation in October 2021. After 22 years, plus the output of battery foil in the original aluminum foil, the total output of power battery foil is expected to reach more than 30000 tons. 3) Aviation board: the company's aviation board production capacity is 50000 tons. At present, it is the only supplier in China that supplies Boeing and Airbus at the same time. The company took the lead in overcoming technical difficulties, helped domestic large aircraft C919, and promoted the localization process of aviation board. We expect that the gross profit of high-end aluminum processing products is expected to increase from 13.5% in 21 years to about 16% this year.
Integrated production of electrolytic aluminum to build an industry-leading cost advantage. 1) Extending upstream, a 2 million ton alumina project is arranged in Indonesia (of which 1 million tons are under construction and are expected to be put into operation in 2022). The company makes full use of Indonesia's local high-quality bauxite, low-cost coal and human resources, and has a leading cost advantage. According to the disclosure of the company, the production cost of alumina project in Indonesia is 1 Shanghai Construction Group Co.Ltd(600170) 0 yuan / ton, which is about 25% lower than that in China. 2) At present, the company has 816000 tons of electrolytic aluminum and supporting capacity. The transportation radius between workshops in each link is small, the overall transportation cost is low, and the production cost of electrolytic aluminum is in the forefront of the industry cost curve. 3) The company plans another 100000 ton recycled aluminum project, which is expected to be put into operation in 2023, which is conducive to further cost reduction and efficiency increase.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: it is assumed that the production and sales of automobile panels in 20222024 will be 14 / 20 / 260000 tons respectively; The production and sales volume of battery aluminum foil is 1.8/2.730000 tons; The production and sales of alumina in Indonesia are 150 / 2 / 2 million tons respectively. From 2022 to 2024, we raised the aluminum price assumption to 2 / 2.121000 yuan / ton, and the corresponding increase in the net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.289/53.04/5.835 billion yuan respectively (the value before 20222023 was 4.046/4.914 billion yuan). As of March 31, 2022, the market value was 48.6 billion yuan, corresponding to 11 / 9 / 8x PE from 2022 to 2024, maintaining the "buy" rating of the company.
Risk warning event: the risk of aluminum price falling; The risk that the company's aluminum product orders and capacity release are less than expected; Risk that global sales of new energy vehicles are lower than expected; Risk of deviation in demand measurement; There is a risk that the public information used in the research report is not updated in time; Fierce competition in the industry leads to the risk of decline in processing fees.
