\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 012 Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) )
Conclusions and suggestions:
Thanks to the substantial growth of semiconductor etching equipment revenue, the company’s revenue in 2021 increased by 37% and net profit after deduction increased by 1291%, of which 4q21 revenue increased by 30% and net profit after deduction increased by 132%, and the performance elasticity gradually appeared. In the long run, as a leading enterprise of semiconductor equipment in China, the company takes the lead in the technical reserve of high-end etching equipment in China, and will benefit from the promotion of domestic substitution for a long time. From the perspective of valuation, the company’s PS is expected to be about 11 times in 2023. As a leading etching equipment manufacturer in China, the company enjoys a certain premium in valuation and maintains the rating of purchase.
The revenue and net profit increased significantly, and the performance elasticity further showed: in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 3.11 billion yuan, and yoy increased by 36.7%; The net profit was 1.01 billion yuan, yoy increased by 105.5%, the net profit after deduction was 320 million yuan, yoy increased by 1291%, eps1.5% 76 yuan. Among them, in the fourth quarter, the company achieved a revenue of 1.04 billion yuan, yoy increased by 29.9%, a net profit of 470 million yuan, yoy increased by 118.1%, and a net profit of 160 million yuan after deduction, yoy increased by 132%. In terms of business, the revenue of etching equipment in 2021 was 2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 55% and a gross profit margin of 44.3%. The company’s CCP etching equipment products continued to maintain competitive advantages, including advanced 5-nano chip production lines and next-generation pilot production lines, and continued to improve the market share. The market share of some key customers has entered the top three or even the top two. The delivery of ICP etching equipment in 2021 exceeded 130 cavities, with a year-on-year increase of more than 230%; Since the newly signed miniledmocvd equipment scale order in 2021 has not confirmed the revenue, the MOCVD equipment revenue in 2021 was 500 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of only 1.5%, but the gross profit margin reached 33.8%, an increase of 18.67 percentage points over 2020. In terms of gross profit margin, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin in 2021 was 43.4%, an increase of 5.7 percentage points over the same period last year. At the same time, the scale effect gradually appeared, and the expense rate of the company decreased by 4.8 percentage points to 26.6% compared with the same period of the previous year, further boosting the performance growth.
Profit forecast: as a leading enterprise of semiconductor equipment in China, the company takes the lead in the technical reserve of high-end etching equipment in China, and will benefit from the promotion of domestic substitution for a long time. In 2021, the company added 4.13 billion yuan of orders, and yoy increased by more than 90.5%, laying a solid foundation for the growth of annual performance. It is expected that with the promotion of miniled equipment sales, the company’s revenue and profit scale will continue to increase rapidly in the next two years. We expect the company’s revenue to be 4.5 billion yuan and 6.3 billion yuan in 202223, yoy to increase by 46% and 39%, net profit to be 1.06 billion yuan and 1.47 billion yuan, yoy to increase by 5% and 39% respectively, EPS to be 1.72 yuan and 2.38 yuan respectively. At present, the stock price corresponds to 67 times and 48 times of PE in 2022 and 23 respectively, and PS is expected to be about 11 times in 2023, As a leading semiconductor equipment manufacturer in China, the company enjoys a certain premium in valuation and maintains the buy rating.
Risk warning: the impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations, and the price fluctuation of raw materials exceeded expectations;
