\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 69 Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) )
Event:
Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) released the annual report of 2021: the company achieved a revenue of 4.84 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 413.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 800 million, turning losses into profits year-on-year; After deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 770 million, it turned losses into profits year-on-year. Among them, Q4 achieved a revenue of 2.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 559.7% and a month on month increase of + 157.90%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 560 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 3334.2% and a month on month increase of + 410.4%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 550 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 3062.7% and a month on month increase of + 419.3%. In 2021, the company’s lithium iron phosphate increased both in volume and price, resulting in high performance.
Key investment points:
In 2021, the amount of lithium iron phosphate materials increased rapidly, and the performance was in line with expectations. In 2021, the company produced 98000 tons of lithium iron phosphate materials, a year-on-year increase of + 202.9%; The shipment volume was 91000 tons, 197.6% year-on-year; Production and sales doubled, mainly due to the gradual release of the company’s phase I and phase II production capacity in Qujing. In 2021, the company’s gross profit margin was 28.8%, a year-on-year increase of + 18.5pct; The net interest rate was 16.6%, year-on-year + 20.3pct. Among them, the gross profit margin of Q4 was 34.5%, month on month + 11.1pct; The net interest rate was 21.7%, month on month + 10.4%. The profitability has been significantly improved. First, the company has strong cost control ability. The sharp rise in the price of lithium carbonate since Q4 has brought inventory income. Second, the demand for power batteries and energy storage batteries continues to be strong, and the supply of lithium iron phosphate Market is tight. Third, the scale effect of sales doubling appears.
LFP capacity expands rapidly, the adaptability of energy storage market is strong, and the sales volume is expected to increase. Supply side: in 2021, the company has an LFP capacity of 120000 tons / year. It is expected that in 2022, Q1 will release a technical transformation capacity of 30000 tons / year, with a total of 150000 tons / year in Q1. Considering that the 100000 t / a nano lithium iron phosphate project in cooperation with Yiwei and the 80000 T / a lithium iron phosphate project in cooperation with Ningde are expected to be put into operation in 2022, the LFP capacity of the company may exceed 350000 T / A in 2022. Demand side: the company’s products use liquid phase method, which has low cost and long cycle life. It is suitable for the energy storage market and is expected to enjoy the high growth of the energy storage industry.
Large scale capacity planning of new phosphate series has opened up the second growth curve. The company’s layout of new phosphate cathode materials has made a technological breakthrough and has passed the small batch verification of downstream customers. As an upgraded product of LFP, the new phosphate series not only has a higher voltage platform, which can significantly improve the energy density of the battery, but also retains the advantages of low cost and high safety. It is expected to replace some 5-series ternary and lithium iron phosphate in the future. The company’s new phosphate system currently has a planned capacity of 440000 T / A, including 110000 T / a of Qujing German Party and 330000 T / a of Yunnan German party.
The lithium supplement agent is superimposed with lithium manganese iron phosphate to improve the performance. In September 2021, the company plans to invest a total of about 3.5 billion yuan in Qujing to build a lithium supplement with an annual capacity of 25000 tons, officially layout the lithium supplement and add another link to the industrial chain; In January 2022, another 2 billion yuan will be invested to build an annual capacity of 25000 tons of lithium supplement, with a cumulative layout of 45000 tons.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company is expected to achieve sustained growth in performance thanks to the increased penetration of new energy vehicles, the large-scale development of energy storage market, and the layout of new businesses such as lithium replenishment agent and lithium manganese iron phosphate. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 12.331 billion yuan / 18.848 billion yuan / 28.334 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.023 billion yuan / 1.448 billion yuan / 1.827 billion yuan. The current share price corresponds to PE of 11.46x/16.22x/20.48x, which is rated as “buy”.
Risk tips: risk of sharp fluctuations in raw material prices, lower than expected sales of new energy vehicles, lower than expected downstream demand, lower than expected capacity expansion, intensified price competition in the industry, etc.
