\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 821 Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) )
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021, and the annual operating revenue was 4.639 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 47.28%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.069 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 48.08%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 935 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 45.22%; The performance is close to the upper limit of previous performance forecast.
The performance is in line with expectations, and the new and old businesses maintain a high growth rate: after excluding the impact of exchange rate, the company expects the annual revenue to be + 56.13% and Q4 revenue to be + 66.61% year-on-year. The performance maintains a high growth rate under the high base. In terms of business, small molecule business orders grew strongly. With the continuous volume of production capacity and strong business momentum, the small molecule revenue in 2021 was 4.238 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 46% and + 55% after excluding the impact of exchange rate. Q4 benefited from covid-19 orders, a year-on-year increase of + 60%. Considering that covid-19 orders are mainly delivered in 2022, we expect small molecule business to maintain Q4 high growth rate in 2022. The new business maintained a strong momentum, with a revenue of 398 million yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 67%; Among them, + 42.48%, + 80.33%, + 83.71% of macromolecules, preparations and clinical research services respectively. The company has rapidly expanded the fields of chemical macromolecules, oligonucleotides, peptides and preparations cdmo, opening up the future growth space.
The orders on hand are full, and the funnel effect of small molecule business is significant: there are 328 projects for revenue recognition of small molecule business, 290 projects in clinical stage, including 55 projects in clinical phase III, 38 projects in commercial stage, and + 26% year-on-year for phase III and commercial projects. With the funnel effect appearing, the project structure is further optimized. In terms of emerging business, macromolecular business has developed 14 new customers, undertaken 23 new projects, and promoted more than 20 projects after phase II; The preparation business has undertaken 40 API + Preparation projects; More than 150 project contracts have been signed in the clinical research sector (70 innovative drugs, 30 cell therapy drugs, and more than 60 cancer, immunity, anti infection & infectious projects). At the end of 2021, the company’s orders on hand amounted to US $1.898 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 320%. Abundant orders on hand are an important guarantee for future performance.
The continuous acceleration of capacity construction is an important cornerstone of high growth in future performance: in terms of small molecules, Dunhua production area is expected to deliver 1000m3 capacity in the first half of 2022; Dunhua, Tianjin and the Yangtze River Delta are expected to add more than 2000m3 of capacity throughout the year; Some workshops will be upgraded to increase the application of advantageous technologies such as continuous reaction and enzyme catalysis, so as to improve the efficiency of existing production capacity. In terms of emerging business, the company promotes the construction of kilogram capacity of small nucleic acid drugs and biological drug R & D center. The first phase of Shanghai Fengxian biological macromolecule pilot test and commercial production base project was started in early 2022. After completion, the company will provide 16000l commercial capacity of antibody stock solution and water injection / powder injection filling production line. In addition, the company expects to add 1500L capacity of ADC coupling stock solution and filling line. In the aspect of preparations, the company’s new spray drying workshop has been put into operation, providing 200 tons of organic solvent treatment, and the eye drops workshop has been put into use in GMP, with an annual capacity of 10 million.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering that the company’s emerging business exceeds the expected volume and superimposes the performance increment provided by covid-19 business, we adjusted the net profit attributable to the parent company from RMB 2.602/2.852 billion to RMB 2.62/2.94 billion in 20222023; We expect the net profit in 2024 to be 3.67 billion yuan, and the current market value corresponds to 38 / 34 / 27 times of PE from 2022 to 2024, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: order delivery is not as expected, new business development is not as expected, exchange gain and loss risk, etc.
