\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 610 Jiangsu Akcome Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002610) )
Key investment points:
Around 2022, n-type components have broken through the critical point of relative cost under lcoe system, and the era of n-type battery has come. Hjt battery has low attenuation, low temperature coefficient, high conversion efficiency and strong thin space, which is superior to TOPCON and perc batteries in the long run Jiangsu Akcome Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002610) hjt battery has a mass production efficiency of 24.5%, which is at the leading level in the industry. At present, it has a production capacity of 1.07gw heterojunction cells and 5.6gw modules. It is expected that the company will have a production capacity of 8.27gw photovoltaic cells by the end of 2022.
Light pack, focus on high-efficiency heterojunction manufacturing
Photovoltaic frame, bracket and module business are the three supports of the company, especially the frame products are at the world leading level. With the advent of the n-type era, the company has arranged hjt in advance since 2019, and now the production capacity of heterojunction components has reached the forefront in the world. Since 2020, the company has actively sold power station assets, with a collection of more than 1.1 billion yuan to reduce the company's burden. The asset liability ratio has decreased significantly from 64.7% at the end of 2019 to 54.1% in 2021q3. The investment income has been overweight the layout of production lines and focused on the manufacturing of efficient heterojunction components.
Actively embrace state-owned enterprises and improve the certainty of increasing income
Jiangsu Akcome Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002610) cooperates with state-owned enterprises such as China Resources Power and Zhoushan overseas investment to develop 20GW heterojunction Battery + modules. Relying on the advantages in the field of photovoltaic auxiliary materials and leading heterojunction technology accumulated for more than 15 years, the company will promote industrial collaboration and customer resource sharing, and realize the landing and transformation of high-efficiency heterojunction module sales. Yuhang financial holding recently took shares, highlighting the company's attraction to state-owned assets and accelerating the company's growth.
Low base implies high growth opportunities
From 2020 to 2021, due to the impact of the epidemic, the export of components, the rise of silicon price and the expansion of heterojunction, the scale of the company's revenue continued to decline, and the pre loss of net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was -195 ~ - 390 million yuan. In January 2022, the company issued the equity incentive plan, and the performance evaluation target is that the growth rate of operating revenue from 2022 to 2025 is not less than 200%, 400%, 600% and 1000% compared with 2021.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating
The company is a leading heterojunction enterprise. It will have 8.27gw battery capacity in 2022. It takes the initiative to jointly develop battery module capacity with state-owned enterprises, which is expected to accelerate the implementation of orders. We estimate that the company's operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 2.932/89.0/16.824 billion respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB -247106/1.183 billion respectively, the EPS will be RMB -0.06/0.02/0.26/share respectively, and the corresponding PE will be - 67 / 157 / 14 times. We gave it a PE valuation of 31-40 times in 2023, with a corresponding share price of 7.95-10.60 yuan. It was covered for the first time and given a "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Risks arising from the high price of silicon materials, difficulties in promoting metallization cost reduction technology, overcapacity of battery modules and tight cash flow of the company
