\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 005 Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) )
The company released its annual report for 2021, with a significant increase in profit of 327.59%. The company’s high nickel materials increased rapidly, the proportion of self supply of precursors gradually increased, continued to layout new production capacity and maintain the overweight rating.
Key points supporting rating
The company’s profit in 2021 increased significantly year-on-year, which was in line with expectations: the company released its annual report in 2021, and achieved an operating revenue of 10.259 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 170.36%; The profit was 911 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 327.59%; Deduct 808 million yuan of non-profit, with a year-on-year increase of 404.73%. According to the calculation, the profit of 2021q4 was 362 million yuan, an increase of 263.81% year-on-year and 59.08% month on month; Deduct 339 million yuan of non-profit, an increase of 380.37% year-on-year and 65.75% month on month. The performance of the company’s annual report is in line with expectations.
The amount of cathode materials increased rapidly, and the self supply proportion of precursors increased: the company achieved the sales volume of cathode materials of 52300 tons in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of about 99.27%, of which high nickel materials accounted for 90%, ranking second in the world. 9 series ultra-high nickel products began to be shipped in batches. The company’s annual operating revenue of cathode materials was 9.575 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 172.48%, and the gross profit margin was 15.51%, a year-on-year increase of 3.26 percentage points. We estimate that the company’s annual net profit per ton is about 1 Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) 000 yuan. In addition, the company’s self supply proportion of high nickel material precursors reaches 30%, which is conducive to further reducing costs. At the same time, it actively promotes the construction of a new generation of production capacity, and is expected to produce ncm811, ni90 and above ultra-high nickel, NCA ternary precursors and NCMA quaternary precursors.
The company issued a fixed increase plan and plans to further improve the production capacity: the company issued a fixed increase announcement, and plans to raise a total amount of no more than 6.068 billion yuan for lithium cathode material expansion projects (Xiantao phase I lithium cathode material project with an annual output of 100000 tons, Zunyi phase 2-2 lithium cathode material project with an annual output of 34000 tons, Zhongzhou phase 1-2 lithium cathode material project with an annual output of 15000 tons), 2025 power lithium battery material comprehensive base (phase I) Engineering equipment phase I project, etc. The company’s production capacity of ternary materials will reach 120000 tons in 2021. With the gradual implementation of new production capacity, the production capacity is expected to reach 250000 tons by the end of 2022.
Valuation
Under the current share capital, combined with the company’s 2021 annual report and industry changes, we adjusted the company’s predicted earnings per share from 2022 to 2024 to 4.50/6.63/9.11 yuan (the original predicted diluted earnings per share from 2022 to 2023 was 4.05/6.13 yuan), corresponding to a P / E ratio of 28.8/19.5/14.2 times; Maintain the overweight rating.
Main risks of rating
Price competition exceeds expectations; The demand for new energy vehicles does not meet expectations; The release of new capacity is not as expected; New product development fails to meet expectations; The impact of covid-19 epidemic exceeded expectations.
