\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 043 Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) )
The company released its 2021 annual report, with annual revenue of 3.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 18.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 560 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 20.3%; Deduct non net profit of 530 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.7%. Among them, 4q21 achieved a revenue of 870 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 20.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was + 1.9 billion yuan on a year-on-year basis; Deduct non net profit of RMB 90 million, a year-on-year increase of + 4.4%.
Key points supporting rating
Moon cakes grew steadily with high potential for quick freezing. Catering benefited from restorative growth and taotaoju. (1) The company’s 1q-4q achieved revenue growth of + 29% / + 33% / + 10% / + 21% respectively. The rapid growth of 4q came from the coordinated development of catering and food industries, with positive growth contribution at the same time. (2) By category, moon cake / quick-frozen / other products / Catering + 10% / + 9% / + 24% / + 48% (4q + 74% / + 38% / + 18% / + 29% respectively). ① Moon cake is still the core of income, and there is still double-digit growth against the background of high base and weak gifts in the industry, reflecting the strong ability of the company in sales planning, target refinement, product optimization and so on. ② The quick-frozen production capacity increased rapidly after the release. The quick-frozen production line of Meizhou base has released the production capacity in 4q. Under the condition of capacity supply + continuous development of the quick-frozen market, the company achieved a high growth of + 38% in 4q. ③ Other products increased by + 24% year-on-year, benefiting from the good sales of festival products such as Dragon Boat Festival, cured meat and potted vegetables and the stable growth of daily category cakes and pastries. ④ Catering increased by + 48% year-on-year, mainly due to the impact of covid-19 epidemic in the same period of 20 years, the recovery of growth in 21 years and the consolidation of taotaoju since 3Q. However, at the end of May, the covid-19 epidemic suddenly broke out in Guangzhou, and the company could not receive food in the reception hall for one month, which had a great impact on the income and profit. In 2021, the company opened 7 new self operated stores and completed the acquisition of 6 Haiyue taojumen stores, with a total of 13 new stores. We judge that taotaoju catering achieved an annual revenue of about 100 million yuan. (3) In terms of regions, within Guangdong Province / outside Guangdong Province / outside Guangdong Province + 19% / + 16% / + 1% respectively. (4) In terms of the number of dealers, the number of dealers was 1011, with a net increase of 168, which continued to accelerate.
The annual net interest rate rose steadily, and the profitability of single 4q declined, which was mainly affected by the rise of costs. (1) The gross profit margin of 2021 was 37.8%, with a year-on-year increase of – 1.5pct, of which the gross profit margin of moon cake / quick freezing / Catering was – 1.9pct / + 0.7pct / + 4.0pct, which was mainly affected by the sharp rise in the prices of raw materials and packaging materials. The increase in the gross profit margin of quick freezing was mainly driven by the decline in pork prices. (2) The total expense rate in 2021 is -1.2pct, and the overall control is good: the sales expense rate is + 0.1pct, which is 9.3%; The rate of administrative expenses is -0.9pct, which is 9.7%; The R & D expense rate is -0.4pct, and the financial expense rate is -0.1pct. (3) The annual net interest rate was 14.3%, year-on-year + 0.2pct; 4q net interest rate was 13.0%, year-on-year -1.3pct; The non net profit margin deducted by 4q was 10.8%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.7pct. The decline of 4q’s profitability was mainly affected by the upward cost.
The layout of production bases has been basically completed and the road of national expansion has been opened. At present, the company has formed a production capacity pattern with complementary cross regional advantageous products in Guangzhou, Xiangtan, Maoming and Meizhou. At the same time, the quick-frozen food production project in phase II of Xiangtan base is currently being designed to lay a production capacity foundation for the growth of quick-frozen food in the 14th five year plan. For catering business, the company continued to layout in key cities in Dawan District, adding one Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) store and one taotaoju store in Shenzhen and one Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) store in Foshan. At the same time, the company actively planned new catering outlets in first tier cities and key cities outside Guangdong Province to accelerate the nationwide layout of brands.
Valuation
According to the long-term plan of the company, we adjusted the profit forecast. It is estimated that the EPS in 22-24 years will be 1.21/1.45/1.71 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.4% / + 19.8% / + 17.8%. Maintain buy rating.
Main risks of rating
The increase of raw material cost exceeded expectations; The impact of repeated epidemic on catering business; The output of the project is less than expected; Food safety risks; Goodwill impairment risk.
