\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 623 Changzhou Almaden Co.Ltd(002623) )
Demand cost pressure shrouded, and the company’s revenue and profit tightened
The company released the annual report of 2021, and the main business data were relatively tight. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 2.032 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 54 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 60.8%. (1) Demand: in 2021, due to the dual pressure of epidemic situation and cost, the company’s new downstream installed capacity was less than expected, and the progress of international business cooperation slowed down. (2) Cost: in 2021, the price of bulk materials in the upstream of the company rose, and the pressure on the cost side was not small. The operating cost of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) glass products increased by 25.16% year-on-year. In 2021, the double pressure of the company’s demand cost shrouded, the investment in R & D and new production lines increased, and the profit fell. We lowered the profit forecast for 2022 / 2023 and added the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 209 (- 1.23) / 304 (- 1.36) / 417 million yuan, EPS will be 1.05/1.53/2.09 yuan / share respectively, and the corresponding p / E ratio of the current stock price will be 25.4/17.4/12.7 times respectively. Optimistic about the company’s future integrated layout and new business development. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Strengthen the integrated layout of the glass industry chain and deepen the photovoltaic + electronic glass business
The degree of integration of glass industry chain is strengthened, and the profit space is expected to expand. (1) Photovoltaic glass: the energy contradiction has prompted countries to accelerate the transformation of clean energy, and photovoltaic glass may usher in a turnaround; At the end of 2021, the company began to acquire the upstream Fengyang Silicon Valley intelligence to alleviate the cost pressure of raw materials such as quartz sand; The company focuses on the business of ultra-thin glass ≤ 2.0mm, keeps leading in the technology industry and carries out differentiated competition. (2) Electronic glass: it is estimated that the LCD production capacity will be stable by 316 million square meters in 2022. The application fields of electronic glass are diverse and the market space is broad; The company has invested a lot of money to polish new technologies and has signed some orders with downstream companies; The cost advantage is significant, the profit margin is large, and the business focus is inclined to electronic glass. The traditional advantages are superimposed on the new layout, the revenue and cost data are expected to be better, and the profit space is expected to be further opened.
Actively expand new photovoltaic business and drive BIPV + photovoltaic power stations side by side
The photovoltaic installation industry is expected to improve and the market margin has improved. The company creates three types of application scenarios: photovoltaic + equipment building / civil tile roof / building safety. Combined with the technical advantages of 1.6mm lightweight thin glass first developed, the company seizes the opportunity to vigorously develop BIPV business. Actively promote the photovoltaic power station business, adopt the cooperation mode with the EPC project construction party, and expand the downstream business layout, which will effectively improve the company’s income in the future.
Risk warning: the upstream price continues to rise, the downstream demand is less than expected, and the competition is intensified
