\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 063 Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) )
Key investment points
Performance summary: the company achieved an operating revenue of RMB 2.104 billion in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 10.03%, mainly due to the statement of the original holding subsidiary and no revenue from power station system integration business; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 280 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.97%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 234 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.35%; EPS is 64.0 yuan. Among them, the revenue in the fourth quarter was 821 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.64%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 103 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 393.37%.
China's wind power converter is the leader, and its profitability is expected to be boosted. In 2021, the company achieved a new energy business revenue of 1.731 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.74% and a gross profit margin of 32.72%, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.98 percentage points, mainly due to the rise in the cost of raw materials and the intensification of the competition of wind power converters, which has a two-way impact on supply and demand. The company is the leader of wind power converters in China, accounting for more than 30% of the market. It is estimated that the company's wind power converter will achieve a revenue of about 1.4 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of about 4%. After the rush of installation, the new installed capacity of the wind power industry will decrease (- 34%) year-on-year. We believe that after the rush for installation, offshore wind power will make a smooth transition to the "parity era". As a subdivision leader, the company will fully benefit from the product and technical advantages of high-power wind power converter, and the income scale and profitability are expected to recover upward.
The photovoltaic market has a broad space, and the photovoltaic inverter has become the second growth curve of the company. After the major economies in the world announced the targets of energy conservation, emission reduction and carbon neutralization, the installed capacity of the photovoltaic market is expected to maintain a high growth trend for a long time. It is expected that the new installed capacity will reach about 350gw and the CAGR will be about 24% by 2025. It is estimated that in 2021, the company's photovoltaic inverter revenue will be about 300 million yuan, double the year-on-year growth, and the sales volume will be 45500 units, with a year-on-year increase of 485%. In December 2021, the company signed a 2022 photovoltaic 100m cooperation agreement with isbrasil, a well-known new energy enterprise in Brazil, to actively promote the industry layout and accelerate the export of products to the sea. In the future, the company is expected to accelerate product iteration and continue to occupy market share by virtue of technical synergy.
Engineering transmission, SVG and new energy electronic control are highly coordinated, and the integrated layout of the company is accelerated. In 2021, the company's engineering transmission achieved a revenue of 201 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 92.71%. The company meets the needs of different industrial fields with intelligent and low-carbon transmission solutions, and has been widely used in metallurgical steel rolling, petroleum, distributed power supply and other industries. In addition, relying on the good application of the company's new energy electronic control business in power grids at home and abroad, SVG products based on this platform have excellent environmental adaptability and good power grid friendliness. As a first-class solution provider of power conversion and control, the company accelerates the construction of a new power system with new energy as the main body.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. The company is a leading company in China's wind power converter, with strategic layout of new energy electronic control collaborative business and accelerated innovation of product technology. In the future, the company is expected to continue to benefit from the growth of photovoltaic wind power. We expect the compound growth rate of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company to be 39.62% in the next three years, maintaining the "hold" rating.
Risk warning: the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic is less than the expected risk; Risk of decline in product price and gross profit margin; Customer development is less than expected risk; Technology development is less than expected risk.
