\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 995 China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) )
Core view
Roe continued to rise by 64.4% and remained at the forefront of the industry. 1) In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 30.131 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.35%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 10.778 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.54%. 2) The company will realize roe14 in 202164%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1pct, keeping the industry leading. By the end of the 21st century, the equity multiplier had reached 6.59, ranking first in the industry. 3) The contribution of self operation, investment banking, brokerage and asset management (excluding other business income) was 49%, 24%, 20% and 10% respectively. The proportion of self operation income fell 3PCT, but the contribution of self operation still ranked first in the industry.
Both the scale of financial assets and the scale of IPO underwriting have increased, and the advantages of stock derivatives and investment banking are stable. 1) By the end of the year, the scale of financial investment assets had increased by 21% over the beginning of the year to 344.2 billion yuan; Among them, equity and fund assets increased by + 15% / + 84% to 127.7/83.8 billion yuan respectively compared with the beginning of the year. As a traditional dominant main business, the stock derivatives business has both robustness and growth. In 21 years, the company achieved self operated income of 14.703 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%. Since 2016, the self operated income has maintained a continuous positive growth, with a CAGR of 53.88%. 1) Another advantage of the company is that its main business, investment banking, achieved a revenue of 7.036 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18%. In 21 years, the company completed A-share IPO, with an underwriting amount of 100538 billion yuan, ranking second in the industry; The underwriting amount of A-share refinancing was 81.314 billion yuan, ranking second. As a sponsor and Bookrunner, he underwritten Hong Kong stock IPO projects with an amount of US $5.981/4 billion respectively, ranking second and first.
The market share of brokerage and financing has increased steadily, and the scale of large asset management has maintained a rapid growth trend. 1) In 21 years, the market share of stock based transactions of retail customers of the company increased from 2.13% to 2.24% year-on-year. The market share of institutional customers also reached a new high. Superimposed on the improvement of market activity, the company realized a brokerage income of 6.031 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 31%, of which the income from selling financial products on a commission basis reached 1.136 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 46%. 2) At the end of the year, the balance of the company’s two financial services increased by 14% to 55.5 billion yuan compared with the beginning of the year, and the market share increased 2bps to 2.74%. The interest income of Liangrong increased by 40% year-on-year to 2.857 billion yuan. 3) At the end of the year, the Aum of the company’s asset management increased by 80% to 1.35 trillion yuan compared with the beginning of the year, and the Aum of public funds and private equity increased by 54% / 11% to 85.2/220.7 billion yuan respectively compared with the beginning of the year. The rapid growth of scale boosted the company’s large asset management sector to achieve a net income of 3.044 billion yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of 19%.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
According to the annual report, fine tune the brokerage market share and other indicators, adjust the BVPs forecast value from 17.99/20.57 to 17.93/20.46 yuan from 22 to 23, increase the 24-year forecast value by 23.45 yuan, maintain a 10% valuation premium according to the comparable company valuation method, give the company 2.80xpb in 2022, adjust the target price to 50.20 yuan, and maintain the overweight rating.
Risk tips
The impact of the policy on the industry exceeded expectations; The dual impact of market fluctuations on industry performance and valuation.
