\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 886 Ganso Co.Ltd(603886) )
Event: 1) the company released its 2021 annual report. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 2.584 billion yuan / + 12.20%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 340 million yuan / + 13.27%, and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 296 million yuan / + 11.32%. 2) In Q4 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 500 million yuan / + 13.79%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 08 million yuan / + 8.10%, and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of – 16 million yuan (the same period last year – 01 million yuan).
The rapid growth of cake business drives the overall improvement of the company’s revenue. The company achieved revenue of 2.584 billion yuan / + 12.20% in 2021. 1) In terms of products, cake achieved revenue of 952 million yuan / + 28.08%, Chinese and Western pastries achieved revenue of 1.464 billion yuan / + 5.43%, and fruits achieved revenue of 22 million yuan / – 48.87%; Among them, the sales volume of cake business is 556300 / + 33.45%, and the sales growth is higher than the revenue growth, because small-size cakes are more popular. 2) From the perspective of different channels, the 2021 company achieved a revenue of 1.037 billion yuan / + 61.55% from online sales, 1.459 billion yuan / – 7.66% from offline sales, accounting for 40.13% / + 15.29pct from online sales. The cultivation effect of e-commerce platform is remarkable, and the online business has achieved rapid growth.
The rising price of raw materials put pressure on the company’s gross profit margin and kept the expense rate stable. 1) The gross profit margin of the company in 2021 is 62.12% / -3.48pct, including 78.84% / -1.76pct of cake, 51.51% / -0.57pct of Chinese and Western cakes and 37.37% / + 0.01pct of fruit; Among them, the decline in cake gross profit margin is mainly due to the rise in the cost of raw materials such as baking oil. 2) In terms of expense rate, the company’s sales expense rate is 38.83% / -0.15pct, management expense rate is 4.95% / -0.21pct, financial expense rate is 0.73% / + 0.73pct, R & D expense rate is 0.67% / -0.07pct, and the expense rate remains stable. 3) In 2021, the net profit margin attributable to the parent company is 13.15% / + 0.12pct, deducting the net profit margin not attributable to the parent company of 11.46% / -0.09pct.
Products, brands and channels have been continuously improved, and the cake business has continued to expand. In 2021, the product side company will streamline SKUs, focus on popular products, launch key products in different seasons, cooperate with different consumption scenarios, and strengthen the connection between brands and annual festivals; Channel side companies accelerate the development of e-commerce channels, and create diversified life scenes through cross-border joint branding and other ways of Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) combination and mutual drainage; The brand side company renovates and upgrades its stores to further build a younger brand. Looking forward to 22 years, on the one hand, the company is expected to continuously improve its products, brands and channels. On the other hand, the cake business is also expected to maintain rapid growth and contribute to the company’s revenue and profits.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
As the growth rate of the company’s revenue is slightly higher than expected and the rise of raw material costs is slightly higher than expected, we slightly increase the revenue and slightly reduce the gross profit margin assumption, give the company an EPS forecast of 1.61/1.78/1.97 yuan for 22-24 years (1.55/1.67 yuan for 22-23 years before adjustment), and use the historical valuation method to give a 22-year 17 times PE valuation, corresponding to the target price of 27.37 yuan, maintaining the “buy rating”.
Risk tips
Procurement costs rose, the growth of cake business was less than expected, and the epidemic repeatedly affected downstream demand
