\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 298 Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) )
Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) 2021 achieved a revenue of 16.099 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.78%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.964 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.18%, and a deduction of non attributable net profit of 3.707 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.16%. In terms of operating data, in 2021, the company and its joint ventures and associates achieved a cargo throughput of 568 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, including a container throughput of 23.71 million TEU, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%. In the future, both volume and price will rise, and pay attention to the absolute income value brought by the stable growth of the company.
Key investment points
Overall: in 2021, the profit increased steadily by 3.2%, and the growth of external expansion and internal potential tapping is expected to continue
Overall, throughout the year, with the gradual recovery of the world economy and the government’s scientific overall planning of epidemic prevention and economic development, China’s import and export of goods trade increased rapidly in 2021. As China’s “one belt, one road” strategic hub and the northern port leading companies, the total throughput of the company and joint ventures and associated enterprises reached 5.68 billion tons in 2021, up 5.6% over the same period last year. The number and density of the airline rank first in the northern ports of China, and the annual revenue was 16 billion 99 million yuan, yoy+21.78%, 2 years CAGR +15.04%.
In terms of cargo types: benefiting from the high prosperity of the industry, the company’s container throughput reached 23.71 million TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%; The throughput of dry and bulk groceries was 210 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%; Liquid bulk cargo throughput reached 110 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%.
The company’s 22q1 performance is expected to further increase steadily. In the first quarter of 2022, through market development and internal potential tapping, the company’s main business grew steadily. It is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company / deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 1.170 billion yuan / 1.141 billion yuan, yoy + 7.31% / + 8.69%, and the performance is expected to further maintain steady growth.
Sub business: liquid bulk cargo revenue increased by 40.88%, and qqct revenue decreased slightly
The production capacity investment led to a year-on-year increase in the revenue of the liquid bulk cargo sector. Driven by the operation of phase II of Dongjiakou port – Weifang – Central Shandong, northern Shandong and crude oil terminals, the company’s liquid bulk cargo throughput reached 110 million tons in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. In terms of consolidation, the revenue from pipeline transportation and warehousing business reached 3.148 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.88%; However, affected by the increase of operating costs such as loading and unloading subcontracting, depreciation, labor and electricity, the gross profit of the sector in 2021 was 2.019 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.7%, and the growth rate of the gross profit end was lower than that of the revenue end. In terms of equity participation, Qingdao Shihua’s net profit increased steadily by 4.9% to 718 million yuan, contributing 359 million yuan of investment income.
The dry bulk cargo sector maintained steady growth. The company continued to expand the market, and developed new business forms such as ore blending and international transit. The annual throughput of dry bulk groceries was 210 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3%; With the increase of throughput, the dry bulk cargo sector achieved a revenue of 3.423 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 4.20%.
Cost side factors have a slight impact on participating in container business. The company’s qqct revenue of its main container business was + 8.13% year-on-year. Affected by cost adjustment, the profit margin decreased by 3.8pct, the net profit of qqct decreased by 1.42%, and contributed 843 million yuan of investment income.
In the future, both volume and price will rise, and pay attention to the absolute income value brought by the stable growth of the company
The throughput is expected to maintain a steady increase: the expansion of beneficial routes and the increase of transit ratio drive the growth of container business volume. In addition, the recovery of hinterland demand and the release of production capacity drive the growth of liquid bulk and dry bulk throughput, which will lead to the steady growth of the company’s cargo throughput. According to the statistics of the Ministry of transport, the cargo throughput of Qingdao metropolitan port area was 102 million tons in the first two months of 2022, with a year-on-year steady increase of 3.3%; The container throughput was 3.72 million TEU, with a year-on-year steady increase of 6.1%.
The improvement of regional pattern and the adjustment of superimposed container rate are expected to promote the improvement of price: on January 28, 2022, 51% equity of Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) group was transferred to Shandong Port Group free of charge to complete the industrial and commercial change registration, and the actual controller of Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) shares was changed to Shandong SASAC, further promoting the improvement of regional port pattern in Shandong Province. In addition, on February 9, qqct announced that the handling fees of 40 foot and 20 foot heavy containers for foreign trade were increased by about 14% and 12% respectively, It is expected that the rate side will continue to improve.
Profit forecast and valuation
Comprehensively considering the development of the company’s business lines, we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 4.393 billion yuan, 4.913 billion yuan and 5.483 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 8.2 times, 7.3 times and 6.5 times of the current share price PE respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the promotion of transit box business is not as expected; Falling loading and unloading rates; The epidemic affected the throughput less than expected.
