\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 180 Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) )
Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) issue the 2021 annual report. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 4.025 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 152.36%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was -721 million yuan, compared with -1.669 billion yuan in the same period in 2020; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profit was -884 million yuan, which was -1.709 billion yuan in the same period in 2020; EPS is -0.81 yuan.
Viewpoint: international development has been promoted in stages, covid-19 small molecules are ahead of schedule, and the commercial inflection point is imminent
Quarterly, q1-4 achieved operating revenue of 1.615 billion yuan, 499 million yuan, 604 million yuan and 1.306 billion yuan respectively. Q1 includes the down payment of US $150 million paid by coherus for treprizumab and part of the neutralizing antibody franchise income; The significant increase in Q4 revenue is mainly from the sales share revenue generated by the continuous distribution of js016 in the United States.
By product, treprizumab achieved sales of 412 million yuan in 2021. On the one hand, due to the inclusion of medical insurance for the first time in 2020, the decline was more than 60%. On the other hand, after the increase of medical insurance indications in 2021, the company gave price difference compensation to all the inventory of dealers, which affected the recognition of current revenue. However, the price reduction rate is the smallest among the anti-PD-1 mAb products successfully negotiated. At present, the price of treprizumab is close to that of similar products.
Overview of the company’s key work in 2021:
Treprizumab: sailing overseas, the application for listing in the United States has been accepted by FDA; First line esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and first-line NSCLC were accepted by nmpa; The indications of second-line urothelial carcinoma and first-line and third-line nasopharyngeal carcinoma were approved; Two new medical insurance indications; Phase 3 clinical trials of first-line extensive SCLC, adjuvant therapy for liver cancer, first-line adjuvant therapy for liver cancer and gastric cancer are progressing smoothly, and will continue to open up a broad incremental market;
Vv116: won the EUA in Uzbekistan at the end of 2021, becoming the third covid-19 oral small molecule drug approved for use in the world; The positive results of 3 phase I clinical studies were published for the first time; The global multicenter phase 3 clinic for mild, moderate and severe covid-19 patients has completed the first case enrollment;
Etesvizumab: since September, more than 850000 doses have been distributed in the United States, with a revenue of US $123 million based on US $850 / dose and 17% sales share;
R & D has been promoted rapidly and fruitful: the clinical research results of treprizumab have landed at ASCO, ESMO, wclc and other international academic conferences for many times, and the research data have been published in nature ″ medicine and recommended on the cover, creating history; Etesvizumab became the first domestic innovative biological macromolecule approved for sale in the United States; The world’s first BTLA monoclonal antibody has promoted the clinical trial of combined treprizumab in China and the United States.
Reach a number of cooperation to absorb cutting-edge technologies & rapid expansion of pipelines: deepen cooperation with coherus in the field of tumor immunity on js006 (tigit); Cooperate with Wangshan wangshui to develop covid-19 oral drugs vv116 (RdRp) and vv993 (3CL); Introduce the multi special biological modular platform to mine the next generation antibody therapy of tumor;
Expand the commercial territory and actively adjust the marketing structure: increase the number of listed products to 3, and commercialize into the field of autoimmune diseases; Take back the promotion right of AstraZeneca to treprizumab, and realize completely independent and controllable product marketing; Mr. Li Cong has been appointed to take full charge of the commercialization activities. The establishment and recovery of the marketing regional team has been completed, and the sales of treprizumab in the Chinese market has come out of the trough.
The value of core products is superimposed, innovation and R & D are promoted, and the source innovation value is highlighted. The international breakthrough of treprizumab is imminent, the large indications continue to expand, and the reconstruction of commercial team is expected to usher in sales improvement; Vv116 leads the domestic covid-19 small molecule track, with a broad market waiting for empty seats; The R & D pipeline is highly innovative, the echelon has been formed, and the growth foundation is solid.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. Without considering the commercialization of vv116 for the time being, the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be 2.274 billion yuan, 3.687 billion yuan and 4.893 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 43.5%, 62.1% and 32.7% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company is -1037 million yuan, – 811 million yuan and -231 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS is -114, -0.89 and -0.25 yuan respectively. Considering the current anti epidemic situation in China and the spreading power of Omicron, the approval of vv116 will bring greater income elasticity to the company. We look forward to the reading of vv116 data. We are optimistic about the development of the company and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: risk of R & D failure; The risk that the project progress is not as expected.
