\u3000\u3000 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) )
The growth rate of performance in 21 years is expected to be low, and the provision for impairment has the highest history: in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 452.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%, a gross profit of 98.8 billion yuan, a gross profit margin of 21.8%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 22.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.7%. The decline in net profit attributable to the parent company was mainly due to: 1) the gross profit margin of real estate business decreased by 7.6pct year-on-year, and the net profit margin of equity in some regions was low, ranging from - 0.65% in Beijing, 5.27% in the South and 5.69% in the southwest; 2) The company's asset impairment loss in 21 years was 3.5 billion yuan, the highest impairment value since listing. The newly accrued impairment items are mainly located in Langfang, Bazhou, Foshan, Guangzhou, Guiyang, Jinan, Taiyuan and Kunming; 3) Affected by the decrease in the income from joint venture projects and the disposal of subsidiaries, the investment income decreased from 13.51 billion yuan in 2020 to 6.61 billion yuan. In order to improve shareholder returns, the company's dividend amount reached 11.28 billion yuan in 21 years, the dividend proportion rose to 50%, and the dividend rate exceeded 5%.
The development advantages of major cities have been continuously consolidated, and the sold but not yet settled supports the growth of future performance: in 2021, the company achieved a sales amount of 627.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8%, a sales area of 38.078 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.4%, and its development business ranked among the top three in the markets of 43 cities in China. In 2021, the sold and outstanding area of the company was 46.735 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.0%, and the total amount of sold and outstanding contracts was about 710.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%.
Abundant resources at hand and exploring the urban renewal mode: in 2021, the company obtained 148 new projects, with a new capacity building area of 26.674 million square meters, a planned equity capacity building area of 19.014 million square meters, and an area equity ratio of 71.3%, an increase of 10.1 PCT; The total equity land price was 140.15 billion yuan, and the average land price was 6942 yuan per square meter. The proportion of equity reached 75.7%, an increase of 13.0 PCT. By 2021, the total construction area of the company's projects under construction is about 103.67 million square meters, and the equity construction area is about 64.284 million square meters; The total construction area of the planned project is 45.217 million square meters, and the equity construction area is about 29.101 million square meters; In addition, the total capacity of the old city reconstruction project reached 5.347 million square meters.
Explore multiple tracks and enter a period of rapid development: 1) property service end: all things cloud has achieved a full caliber revenue of 24.04 billion yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of + 32.1%, a compound growth rate of more than 30% in recent ten years, and the area under management has reached 780 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 35.9%. 2) Logistics storage end: in 21 years, the revenue was 3.16 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 68.9%, and the noi was 1.785 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 54%. The leasable construction area reached 11.36 million square meters, of which the cold chain storage area reached 1.38 million square meters, ranking first in China. 3) Rental housing end: the 21-year management rental housing income was 2.89 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 13.9%. The total scale was 208700, with a total of 159500 opened, covering 26 cities. The opening scale and operation efficiency ranked first in the industry. 4) Commercial development and operation: in 21 years, the commercial income reached 7.62 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20.6%. The accumulated open construction area was 11.392 million square meters, the newly opened construction area was 2.069 million square meters, and the planned construction area under construction reached 4.013 million square meters; The Yangtze River delta accounts for 52% of the management area, with more than 7300 brands and more than 15 million digital members.
The "three red lines" remain green and keep the safety bottom line: in 2021, the asset liability ratio excluding advance receipts was 68.4%, the net debt ratio was 29.7%, and the cash short debt ratio was 1.5, maintaining the green level. In 2021, the comprehensive cost of the company's stock financing at the end of the period decreased to 4.11%, monetary funds can cover 2.5 times of short-term interest bearing liabilities, and the proportion of long-term liabilities + 10.1pct reached 78%. Zhongchengxin, Fitch, Moody's and S & P rated the Company AAA, BBB +, baa1 and BBB +, respectively, and the outlook is stable.
With the introduction of the repurchase plan, the increase of senior executives' holdings shows their confidence in long-term development: the company plans to repurchase 1.18% (136.84 million shares) of the total share capital at a price of no more than 18.27 yuan per share. The repurchase is effective from April 28 to the end of June after the release of the first quarterly report. In addition, the company's directors, supervisors and senior managers will increase their holdings within six months from March 30, with a combined amount of no less than 20 million yuan and an increase price of no more than 18.27 yuan.
Investment suggestion: we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years to be 24.4, 26.4 and 28 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 2.10, 2.27 and 2.41 yuan per share. Considering the company's stable basic market and the comprehensive development strength of stable ranking among the industry leaders, we give the company 12 times PE valuation in 22 years, corresponding to the target price of 25.2 yuan, and maintain the "buy rating".
Risk tip: the repair of industry demand is less than expected; The carry forward of projects with low historical gross profit affects the profit.
