\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Events
In 2021, the company’s operating revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 106190 billion yuan and 52.460 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 11.88% and 12.34% respectively; In 2021q4, the operating revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 31.548 billion yuan and 15.194 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 13.89% and 18.06% respectively over the same period last year.
Key investment points
The performance in 2021 is in line with expectations and the profit side has excellent performance. In 2021, the company’s operating revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 106190 billion yuan and 52.460 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 11.88% and 12.34% respectively, and the gross profit margin increased by 0.13 percentage points to 91.54% year-on-year. Product revenue side: in 2021, the company’s revenue of Maotai liquor and other series of liquor increased by 10.18% and 26.06% year-on-year to 93.465 billion yuan and 12.595 billion yuan respectively. The specific volume and price breakdown is as follows: 1) in 2021, the sales volume of Maotai liquor and other series of liquor increased by 5.67%, 1.46% to 3.63 and 3.02 million tons respectively compared with the same period last year; 2) The ton price changed by 4.26% and 24.25% to 25775 and 417400 yuan / ton respectively compared with the same period last year, thus promoting the gross profit margin to change by 0.04 and 3.55 percentage points to 94.03% and 73.69% respectively compared with the same period last year. Overall, Maotai liquor benefited from the price increase of non-standard products in 2021 and the increase in the proportion of direct sales channels, and the ton price increased steadily; The series of wines benefited from the frequent superposition of price increases in 2021 and the improvement of structure. The ton price also recorded a bright increase of 24.25%, and the profit side of the company performed well.
The effect of channel reform is remarkable, and the proportion of direct sales channels has reached 23%. The company’s channel structure was further optimized. In 2021, the company’s direct / wholesale channel revenue increased by 81.49% and 0.55% over the same period last year to 24.029 and 82.030 billion yuan, and the direct channel revenue accounted for 8.69 percentage points to 22.66% over the same period last year; According to the split of volume and price: 1) the sales volume changed by 45.87% and 0.96% respectively compared with the same period last year to 5700 and 60700 tons; 2) The ton price changed by 24.42%, – 0.41% to 4.1894 and 1.3513 million yuan / ton respectively compared with the same period last year, thus promoting the gross profit margin to change by 0.5, – 0.5 percentage points to 96.12% and 90.3% respectively compared with the same period last year. Overall, in 2021, Maotai liquor continued to increase the proportion of direct sales channels and strengthen the control of dealers. In 2021, the company had a net number of 43 to 2089 dealers in China (the increase was mainly the dealers of Maotai flavor series).
Advance receipts increased significantly month on month, and the sales expense rate remained stable. In terms of cash flow, the company’s net cash flow from operating activities in 2021 was 64.029 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.92%; In terms of advance collection, in 2021, the advance collection (contract liabilities + other current liabilities) was 14.254 billion yuan, an increase of 3.992 billion yuan month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 677 million yuan. In terms of expense ratio, the company’s cost control was strengthened, and the company’s sales expense ratio decreased by 0.10 percentage points to 2.50%, mainly due to the increase of Maotai flavor series liquor advertising and market development expenses in 2021, and the management expense ratio increased by 0.80 percentage points to 7.78%, mainly due to the increase of employee salary expenses and maintenance expenses in this period.
The performance of 2022q1 is in line with expectations, and the target in 2022 is accelerated to 15%. It is optimistic that Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) subsequent accelerated development and reform exceed expectations. 22q1 performance: Recently, the company released 22q1 performance express, which shows that the company expects to achieve revenue of about 33.1 billion in 2022q1, with a year-on-year increase of about 18%; It is estimated that the net profit is about 16.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 19%. The high performance increase is mainly due to the increase in the proportion of non-standard and direct sales channels. Recently, dealers have basically completed payment in March, and the non-standard shipment volume is large. They are optimistic about the high growth certainty of 22q1 performance. 22 year performance target: the company will go all out to do a good job in production, operation, reform and development, and strive to promote the company’s high-quality development and make great strides. This year’s business objectives: first, the total operating revenue increased by about 15% over the previous year; Second, 6.969 billion yuan was invested in capital construction. At the policy level: (1) ding Xiongjun previously said that he should not “take small steps” but “take big steps”;
2) the State Council issued a document in January to support Guizhou’s development and give full play to the superiority of Maotai Baijiu liquor in Chishui River Basin. 3) in February, Guizhou Province proposed that in 2022, the Guizhou Baijiu liquor brand fleet, which was led by Moutai, will be built, and the policy support to ensure that the added value of Baijiu industry increased by more than 20% will also set the tone for Moutai’s accelerated development.
“I Maotai” e-commerce platform went online as scheduled, which is expected to further promote marketing reform. “I Maotai” went online as scheduled recently and is currently in the trial operation stage. We believe that: 1) the ex factory price of the four non-standard new products on the line is high, which is conducive to thickening the profit of the joint stock company (the channel profit is about 100 yuan); 2) The company took the lead in launching four new products to prepare for the subsequent launch of more products. It is expected that some of the incremental Maotai Liquor / Series liquor of this year will be launched to the e-commerce platform in the future; 2) On the basis of the former Maotai cloud business, “I Maotai” has added a new customer member management system / random drawing of lots / offline delivery with ID card / participation of exclusive stores (exclusive stores pick up goods from their own stores for preparation) / higher change and fairer digitization, laying the foundation for more accurate delivery, more reasonable channel profit distribution and stronger channel control; 3) Provide a product release platform for non-standard products.
In the short term: Maotai liquor series is driven by two wheels, and a series of measures taken by new leaders will be implemented. 22q1 performance: considering that 22q1 company launched new non-standard products + raised prices in year 15 + low base, the profit side is expected to increase by 19% – 20%; 22 year performance: 1) from the perspective of volume, considering that the input of Maotai liquor in 2021 is only about 36000 tons, and it is expected to be 50000 tons at the end of the 14th five year plan, the four years back in 2022 are the major year of Maotai base liquor production, and the volume of Maotai liquor is expected to increase or exceed the expectation in 2022; 2) From the perspective of price, the further increase of the proportion of non scalar price double rise superimposed direct sales channels will be the main direction (in line with the strategy of strengthening price control). After the new leader takes office, it is expected to launch more marketing reform measures, which may also be conducive to thickening performance.
In the medium and long term: entering the 14th five year plan, take the road of Maotai and the “five line” development road. Considering the strong demand side performance, the company continues to strengthen supervision The output increased steadily (in 2021, the actual production capacity of Maotai Liquor Making Workshop / Series liquor making workshop increased from 6237 and 3324 tons to 56472 and 28249 tons respectively year-on-year. Among the design production capacity of 31660 tons of series liquor base, the design production capacity of 6400 tons of series liquor base will be put into operation in November 2021, and the actual production capacity will be released in 2022; during the 14th Five Year Plan period, Maotai liquor series is planned to achieve double production capacity of 56000 tons), the technical transformation project was steadily promoted The implementation of channel reform is accelerated. It is expected that the volume and price of Maotai liquor may exceed the expectation in 2022, and promote the acceleration of the statement end. In entering the 14th five year plan, the company will take the road of Maotai, the “five line” development path, adhere to “double building” and “double consolidation”, gather the main business, adjust the structure, strengthen supporting facilities, construct the ecology, and have strong certainty of future performance.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the revenue growth rate of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 17.5%, 16.2% and 14.4% respectively; The growth rate of net profit was 18.0%, 17.7% and 16.2% respectively; EPS is 49.3 yuan / share, 58.0 yuan / share and 67.4 yuan / share respectively; The corresponding PE is 35, 30 and 26 times respectively. Considering the strong growth and performance certainty of the company, the buy rating is given.
Risk tips: 1. Macroeconomic downturn; 2. The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations
