\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 410 Glodon Company Limited(002410) )
Leading enterprise of digital architecture: "clear strategy + efficient implementation" drives high growth
The company is a leading enterprise in digital architecture in China. Through "clear strategy + efficient implementation", the company has completed eight "three-year plans", formed a business map of "three main lines (Digital cost, digital construction and digital design) + several innovation units", and continued to open up business growth space. In the future, the company is expected to continue to achieve high-quality growth during the "Ninth three year plan" period by taking advantage of the high-speed development of digital economy driven by the three core endogenous drivers of "strategic planning + Digital Glodon Company Limited(002410) + dste".
Digital cost: the cloud business will cover the whole country, and the transformation bonus will continue to appear
Digital cost is a mature business of the company with obvious competitive advantage, which is expected to account for 60% in China. At present, the company's cost cloud transformation continues to deepen. The SaaS subscription model covers 29 regions across the country, and the proportion of cloud revenue has increased to 67%. The average conversion rate and renewal rate indicators of the transformed regions in 2020 and before are 85% +. Through cloud transformation, the company will improve its business model, iterative upgrading, piracy transformation and other aspects, and help the digital cost business go faster and farther on the dual path of "price increase + increment". We estimate that the potential market space of the company's digital cost business is 7 billion yuan +, at least twice the current space.
Digital construction: product value improvement + mature platform construction, opening high growth
Digital construction is the company's key breakthrough growth business, focusing on engineering project construction, mainly including BIM + smart site series products at the project end and project enterprise integration products for the construction enterprise level. At present, the value of the company's digital construction products continues to be implemented, and the digital project integrated management platform is upgraded iteratively. In the future, driven by policy + demand + technology, the digital transformation of the construction industry is expected to accelerate, and the investment in construction informatization will continue to grow. According to the investor exchange documents disclosed by the company in 2020, it is assumed that 1.4 million projects are under construction every year, and the corresponding industry scale exceeds 140 billion. By the end of 2021, the company's digital construction has served 55000 projects, with broad growth space in the future.
Digital design: complete the integration with Hongye Technology, and the collaborative value continues to appear
Digital design is an emerging business that the company strives to develop. Its bimspace and civil municipal products are in a leading position in the market. In 2021, it achieved a revenue of 131 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 250.12%. The installed capacity of public beta versions of digital architectural design products exceeded 1700. At present, the company has completed the integration with its subsidiary Hongye Technology, and the teams of both sides share the channel and marketing system. In the future, the synergy value will further appear.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company is a leading enterprise in digital architecture in China. The three main businesses have made significant breakthroughs, the market competitiveness has been continuously improved, and the growth space has been continuously opened. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 953 million yuan, 1253 million yuan and 1631 million yuan respectively, with corresponding PE of 62, 47 and 36 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The digital transformation of the construction industry is less than expected, the technological innovation is less than expected, and the market competition is intensified
