\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 352 S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) )
Event: the company issued the 2021 annual report. The company’s operating revenue in the 21st year was about 207.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 4.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.7%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was about 1.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 70.1%; The company’s acquisition of Kerry Logistics in 21 years increased the net profit attributable to the parent company by about 370 million yuan. After excluding the impact, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years was about 3.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.8%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter of 21 years was about 2.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 21.5%. The company plans to distribute cash dividend (before tax) of 0.18 yuan / share to all shareholders, and the cash dividend rate has exceeded 20% in recent three years.
The proportion of the company’s express delivery industry decreased slightly year-on-year. In 2021, the company completed about 10.55 billion express tickets, a year-on-year increase of about 29.7%, 0.2pct lower than the average growth rate of the industry; The express business volume of the company accounted for about 9.7% of the business volume of express service enterprises in China, a decrease of 0.02pct compared with the same period of last year. The express delivery volume of the company in the first two months of 2022 increased by 2% year-on-year, which was lower than the industry average growth rate (19.6%). The express business volume of the company accounted for about 10.4% of the business volume of express service enterprises in China, a decrease of 1.8pct compared with the same period of last year.
The structure of express business changed, and the single ticket income began to rise. In 2021, the company’s express segment, express segment and local segment achieved operating revenue of 132.3 billion yuan, 28.4 billion yuan and 5.1 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, 46.6% and 58.8% respectively; In 21 years, the company’s single ticket income was about 16.25 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 8.6%, which was significantly narrowed compared with the same period last year (19.0%). The company’s single ticket revenue decreased year-on-year, which was mainly affected by the change in the proportion of business structure: the business volume of economic express and intra city express delivery with relatively low single ticket revenue increased rapidly, and the overall average ticket revenue decreased after the proportion increased; However, at the same time, under the company’s business measures of continuously promoting customer stratification and product structure optimization, the quality of revenue has been effectively improved. The average ticket revenue has rebounded month on month from the third quarter of 2021, narrowed the gap compared with the same period of the previous year, and basically remained the same year on year in the fourth quarter.
The results of four networks financing showed, and the profit of express transportation increased. In 2021, the company’s logistics and freight forwarding cost was about 178.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 40.9%, and the company’s full caliber single ticket cost was about 16.9 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%. In 2021, the company realized a net profit / loss of + 3.8 billion yuan, – 580 million yuan, – 900 million yuan and + 620 million yuan respectively for express segment, express segment, intra city segment, supply chain and international segment. Among them, the net profit of express segment in the second half of 21 was about 2.8 billion yuan, which was significantly improved compared with the first half of 21 (profit of 980 million yuan); The Express Division has reached breakeven in the second half of 21 years, which is significantly improved compared with the first half of 21 years (loss of 580 million); The supply chain and international division benefited from the acquisition of Kerry Logistics and realized a net profit of 620 million yuan in the whole year of 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 497%.
Investment suggestion: the effect of the company’s four networks financing began to appear, and the profitability of express business gradually recovered / improved, which promoted the company’s net profit deducted from non parent company to continue to rise in the fourth quarter of 21; Ezhou airport is expected to be officially put into operation within this year, and the company has completed the acquisition of Kerry Logistics, which will help expand the company’s global network layout and accelerate the company’s international business expansion. Considering the gradual recovery of the company’s profitability and the impact of Kerry Logistics consolidated statement, we raised the company’s net profit for 22-23 years by 26% / 25% to 7.4 billion yuan and 9.6 billion yuan respectively, and increased the net profit for 24 years by 11.1 billion yuan; We believe that the current stock price of the company has fully reflected the pessimistic expectation. When the fundamentals of the company gradually recover, it is expected to bring excess returns in the future, and the company is upgraded to the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: macroeconomic fluctuation risk leads to the decline of express demand; Industry competition exceeds expectations, resulting in the decline of single ticket income, which affects the profit level of the company; The progress of raising funds to invest in projects and the implementation of acquisitions was lower than expected.
