\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 11 Moon Environment Technology Co.Ltd(000811) )
Event: the company announced that the revenue in 2021 was 5.383 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.14%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 301 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.20%; After deduction, it was 237 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.60%. The dividend amount was 149 million yuan, accounting for 49.57% of the net profit attributable to the parent company.
Q4 affected by the epidemic, the growth rate of revenue slowed down, and the growth rate of profit increased quarter by quarter. According to the contents of the company’s annual report, the revenue in 2021 was 5.383 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.14%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 301 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.20%; After deduction, it was 237 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.60%. The dividend amount was 149 million yuan, accounting for 49.57% of the net profit attributable to the parent company. Quarterly, Q2, Q3 and Q4 revenues were 1.238 billion yuan, 1.546 billion yuan and 1.487 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 27.50%, 28.06% and 20.58% respectively. We speculate that Q4 is a quarter with obvious repeated epidemics, which dragged down the growth rate of the company’s revenue. In terms of net profit attributable to the parent company, Q2, Q3 and Q4 were 79 million yuan, 101 million yuan and 69 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of – 30.35%, 32.69% and 45.13% respectively; After deducting non profits, it was RMB 60 million, RMB 88 million and RMB 50 million, with growth rates of – 41.41%, 60.28% and 993.83% respectively. The profit growth rate increased quarter by quarter.
The gross profit margin reflects the bottom recovery trend, and the profitability can be improved in 2022 under good cost control. In 2021, affected by the impact of the epidemic, the rise of raw material prices, the rise of labor costs and other factors, the gross profit margins of Q1, Q2 and Q3 were 21.36%, 20.95% and 20.92% respectively, down 4.59%, 8.52% and 5.93% respectively compared with the same period in 2020. However, the company raised the price in the second half of the year, and the gross profit margin of Q4 was 24.32%, up 0.53% compared with the same period in 2020. The profitability reflected the bottom recovery trend. For the whole year of 2021, the company’s gross profit margin was 21.96%, a decrease of 4.45 percentage points compared with 2020, but the expense rate decreased by 5.52 percentage points compared with 2020, and the net interest rate increased by 0.08 percentage points, reflecting the company’s good ability of expense control. If: 1) the bottom recovery of the company’s gross profit margin can be maintained in 2022; 2) If the expense control ability can be maintained in 2022, we can judge that the gross profit margin of the company in 2022 is expected to gradually return to the steady-state level of 27% – 30%, and the recovery of net profit margin is expected.
Sufficient cash reserves on hand + substantial increase in inventory, escorting the release of performance. As of the end of the year, the company’s monetary assets on hand amounted to RMB 2.61 billion, with a total of RMB 2.61 billion in monetary reserves. The inventory was 1.148 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.56%; Among them, raw materials amounted to 270 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.29%; In process products amounted to 241 million yuan, an increase of 83.97% year-on-year; The inventory of commodities was 416 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.95%; The contract performance cost was 203 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.59%; The goods issued were 46 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 109.09%. The sufficient cash reserve in hand + the sharp increase in inventory escorted the release of performance.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we adjusted the company’s EPS forecast for 20222023 from 0.59 and 0.73 yuan / share to 0.62 and 0.89 yuan / share. It is expected that the company’s EPS will be 1.00 yuan / share in 2024, corresponding to 18, 13 and 11 times of PE in 20222024 respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: raw material prices, intensified industry competition, and the development of cold chain logistics industry does not meet expectations
