\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) 600)
The performance in 2021 is in line with expectations
The company’s revenue in 2021 was 30.167 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, and the net profit attributable to the parent before and after deduction was 3.155 and 2.207 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 43.3% and 21.5%. In 2021q4, the single quarter revenue was 3.395 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7%. After deducting the non parent net profit loss of 455 million yuan and 1.009 billion yuan. Maintain the forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 3.626 and 44.59 from 2022 to 2023. It is estimated that the net profit in 2024 will be RMB 5.192 billion, and the net profit in 20222024 will increase by 14.9%, 23.0% and 16.4% year-on-year. The current stock price corresponds to 28.7, 23.4 and 20.1 times PE. Although the impact of the short-term epidemic and the superimposed cost pressure, the high-end trend is obvious, the valuation has been in a reasonable range, and the “overweight” rating is maintained.
High end continued to be promoted, and the ton price increased significantly
Beer sales increased by 1.4% year-on-year and the ton price increased by 7.0%, resulting in a gross profit margin increase of 1.28pct, mainly due to the upgrading of high-end and sub brand products to main brands. In terms of brands, the revenue of Qingdao’s main brands increased by 14.8% year-on-year, of which the ton price increased by 2.8% year-on-year (4573 yuan per ton), and the sales volume increased by 11.6% year-on-year; The revenue of Laoshan sub brand decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, of which the ton price increased by 7.2% year-on-year (2743 yuan per ton), the sales volume decreased by 8.6% year-on-year, and the low ton price sub brand upgraded significantly to the main brand. In terms of subregions, the base Market in Shandong and North China increased by 9.6% and 12.1%, showing an accelerated trend, and the coastal markets in southeast, South and East China increased steadily.
Profitability improved significantly under high-end
In 2021, the net profit margin increased by 2.41 PCT year-on-year, of which the gross profit margin of beer business under the new accounting standards increased by 1.28 PCT year-on-year, mainly due to high-end and upgrading of product structure; The sales expense ratio increased by 0.71 PCT year-on-year, mainly due to the significant increase in marketing and advertising investment; The rate of management expenses decreased by 0.4pct year-on-year, mainly due to the decrease of employee salary expense rate; In addition, 570 million land disposal income contributed significantly.
Incentives continue to improve, and the impact of the epidemic does not change the high-end trend
The salary of front-line sales staff continued to improve and the incentive continued to improve. The impact of the epidemic on the sales volume of catering channels is relatively short-term, and the demand trend of high-end beer remains unchanged. With the upgrading of product structure and direct price increase under the high-end, the ton price is expected to maintain a high single digit growth in 2022, and the comprehensive cost is expected to increase in single digits under the rise of barley and packaging materials. Although there is pressure on profitability, it is expected to continue to improve.
Risk tip: the risk of continued weak catering demand, rapid rise in costs and intensified competition
