\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 096 Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021, with annual revenue of 63.249 billion yuan (year-on-year + 21.37%) and net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.642 billion yuan (year-on-year + 123877%). The provision for impairment decreased the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company by 314 million yuan in 2021.
The prosperity of the industry has increased and the company’s profits have increased significantly: the company’s performance has increased significantly in 2021, which is mainly due to the global chemical fertilizer industry affected by the epidemic, the insufficient market supply and the continuous tight relationship between supply and demand, which has promoted the rise of the price of chemical fertilizer products; With the recovery of China’s economy, the market price of chemical products of polyoxymethylene, yellow phosphorus and calcium feed companies has increased. At the same time, give full play to the advantages of centralized procurement platform, accurately control the procurement rhythm of large raw materials such as sulfur and coal, and effectively alleviate the impact of rising prices of bulk raw materials. According to the announcement, the average sales price excluding tax of the company’s main products phosphate fertilizer, compound fertilizer, urea, polyformaldehyde and feed grade calcium phosphate in 2021 increased by 39.3%, 20.4%, 34.5%, 53.2% and 39.9% respectively year-on-year compared with 2020; Relying on the advantages of integrated mineralization and high self-sufficiency rate of synthetic ammonia, the gross profit margin of various products increased significantly year-on-year. In 2021, the comprehensive gross profit margin was 13.68%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.32pct; During the period, the expense rate was 5.40%, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.33 PCT, and continued to strengthen expense control and optimization through multiple channels; The asset liability ratio was 76.29%, a year-on-year decrease of 7.59pct, and the asset structure was significantly improved.
Phosphate fertilizer is not light in the off-season, the domestic and foreign demand is good, and the boom is expected to remain high: according to the National Bureau of statistics, in 2021, China’s output of monoammonium phosphate was 12.53 million tons (year-on-year + 1.5%), and that of diammonium phosphate was 13.54 million tons (year-on-year – 4.3%); In 2021, the export volume of monoammonium phosphate in China was about 3.7859 million tons (year-on-year + 49.61%), and the export volume of diammonium phosphate was 6.569 million tons (year-on-year + 9.15%). There was strong demand in the international market and the price went up all the way. According to Baichuan, the FOB export price of diammonium phosphate in China has exceeded US $1000 / ton, up 170% from the beginning of 2021; The 64% Yunnan ex factory price of diammonium phosphate also continued to rise from 2400 yuan / ton in early 2021 to 3470 yuan / ton at present. The time of the greatest pressure on phosphate fertilizer inventory has passed, and the price remains strong. According to Baichuan, with the time of spring ploughing fertilizer approaching, China’s demand is strong, the amount of ammonium phosphate enterprises to be received and sent in advance is sufficient, and the market is in a state of short supply. Some export orders in the second quarter are expected to pass the legal inspection, the export will be liberalized, the internal and external demand will be good, and the high outlook of phosphate fertilizer is expected to be maintained. According to the announcement, in 2022, the company expects to produce and sell 5.95 million tons of phosphate compound fertilizer. For every 100 yuan / ton increase in price, the performance will be increased by about 400 million yuan.
Accelerate the layout of industrial transformation and develop industrial clusters such as new energy, fine phosphorus chemical industry and fluorine chemical industry: according to the announcement, in 2021, the company will seize the development opportunity of new energy industry and accelerate the construction of 500000 tons of iron phosphate and its supporting devices. The phase I iron phosphate project with an annual output of 100000 tons is expected to be completed and put into operation in the second half of 2022. At the same time, the wholly-owned subsidiary Fushi science and technology has an annual output of 4000 tons of phosphorus pentoxide, 22000 tons of polyphosphate (30000 tons of food grade phosphoric acid), 1500 tons of Fluoronitrobenzene, 10000 tons of magnesium fluorosilicate in red phosphorus chemical industry, the joint venture’s 5000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate project has been rapidly promoted, and the strategic layout of fine chemical industry cluster has been accelerated.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 4.6 billion yuan, 4.8 billion yuan and 5 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to pe1.0 billion yuan 2. 9.7 and 9.4 times, maintaining the Buy-A rating.
Risk tips: the price of raw materials fluctuates, and the prosperity of products is less than expected.
