The trend of large-scale cell is clear, and the prospect of large cylinder route is promising. Compared with the previous generation 2170 cylindrical battery, the 4680 large cylindrical battery adopts a larger 46mm 80mm cell and the electrodeless ear technology with smaller internal resistance, which makes the 4680 increase energy by 5 times, mileage by 16%, power by 6 times and production cost by 14% on the basis of 2170. The large cylindrical battery continues the characteristics of high consistency, good safety and compatibility with high energy density materials. The large-scale cell also brings the advantages of high group efficiency, low difficulty of BMS and adaptability of high-voltage platform. Large cylindrical battery can be compatible with high energy density materials and high voltage fast charging system, which is an important technical route to solve the mileage anxiety of new energy vehicles.
Battery manufacturers accelerated the layout of large cylindrical batteries, and the multiple advantages of large cylinders helped to increase the share of cylinders. At present, Tesla has made it clear that it will use 4680 large cylindrical batteries for high-end long-life passenger cars and use 4680 batteries on semi trucks and cybertruck. It is expected that the first model equipped with large cylindrical batteries will be produced in early 2022. In order to meet the demand for large cylindrical batteries, in addition to Tesla's own battery factory layout of large cylindrical batteries, Chinese foreign battery manufacturers such as Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Panasonic and LG Chemical are also accelerating the expansion of production and layout of large cylindrical batteries. The large volume of large cylindrical battery is expected to become an important support for the increase of cylindrical share. With high cost performance, large cylindrical battery will have an impact on the existing battery structure system. We predict that in 2025, the global proportion of cylindrical power batteries is expected to reach 27%, and the demand for cylindrical power batteries will reach 318.2gwh.
The increasing demand for large cylindrical batteries is expected to enhance the application potential of high energy density materials. Cylindrical batteries are superior to square batteries and soft pack batteries in consistency, structural strength and heat dissipation performance, and the unique electrodeless lug design of large cylindrical batteries can reduce the thermal effect of large cylindrical batteries during charging. Therefore, large cylindrical batteries have better inclusiveness to high nickel positive electrodes with poor thermal stability and silicon-based negative electrodes with high volume expansion rate, The large volume of large cylindrical battery will increase the demand for high nickel positive electrode and silicon-based negative electrode. In addition, due to the poor thermal stability of high nickel positive electrode, high temperature will aggravate the dissolution of transition metal and deteriorate the battery state. High nickel battery puts forward higher requirements for electrolyte matching. The use of lifsi with good thermal stability as electrolyte can significantly improve the battery performance. The accelerated commercialization of high nickel cathode will increase the demand for lifsi.
Large cylindrical batteries bring opportunities for manufacturers of relevant materials and structural parts. 4680 large cylindrical batteries are expected to start mass production of some Tesla models next year. Battery manufacturers who pay attention to the layout of large cylindrical battery capacity are concerned about the growth opportunities of high nickel positive electrode, silicon-based negative electrode, lifsi and carbon nanotube links in the lithium battery industry chain brought by the expansion of large cylindrical battery capacity, as well as the increased demand of 4680 large cylindrical batteries for cylindrical structural parts. In addition, because the large cylindrical full polar ear technology adopts laser cutting and laser welding, it will be conducive to laser welding and cutting equipment.
Investment suggestions: with the progress of battery technology, the improvement of product power and the continuous improvement of infrastructure, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will accelerate and drive the release of power battery demand. The large-scale development of power batteries will further reduce the cost of the industry and form a positive feedback for the development of new energy vehicles. In the long run, we continue to be optimistic about the development prospect of new energy vehicles in line with the "double carbon" trend. Therefore, we give the "recommended" rating of the new energy vehicle industry. On the specific target, focus on: (1) battery link: layout [ Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) ] of the capacity of large cylindrical batteries for passenger cars of 20gwh / year; (2) High nickel cathode link: precursor enterprises [ Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) ], [ Gem Co.Ltd(002340) ] and [ Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) ], which have high nickel cathode technology reserves and mass production capacity and have passed customer certification [ Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) ] and [ Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) ]; (3) Lifsi link: [ Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) ] with industrial chain circulation and cost advantages; (4) Carbon nanotube link: a leading enterprise focusing on carbon nanotube products [ Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) ]; (5) Structural parts: leading enterprise of precision structural parts [ Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) ] and [ Suzhou Slac Precision Equipment Co.Ltd(300382) ] expanding power battery structural parts business by taking advantage of the advantages in the field of cans; (6) Equipment link: high speed laser film maker with deep understanding of laser technology and process [ Shenzhen Hymson Laser Intelligent Equipments Co.Ltd(688559) ].
The risk indicates that the production and sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected; The promotion and marketization of 46800 battery capacity were not as expected; The ternary demand for high nickel is lower than expected; The technological progress and cost reduction of silicon carbon negative electrode are less than expected; The industrialization process of lifsi is less than expected; The demand for carbon nanotubes is less than expected; The price of raw materials in the industrial chain fluctuates sharply; Competition in lithium battery industry intensifies; Focus on the company's performance less than expected.
