The energy storage policy is conducive to release and promote the high-quality development of renewable energy. The national energy administration and the national development and Reform Commission jointly issued the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan. The plan requires to accelerate the construction of system friendly new energy power stations, support the export of high proportion of renewable energy bases with new energy storage, promote the development and consumption of large-scale wind power photovoltaic bases in Gobi desert and large-scale offshore wind power, and improve the regulation capacity of conventional power sources such as coal power through rational allocation of energy storage. The southern regulatory bureau of the National Energy Administration mentioned in the draft for comments on the implementation rules of power grid connection operation management and the implementation rules of auxiliary service management that relaxing the location restrictions of new energy storage power stations, encouraging the formation of direct control aggregation platform and raising the compensation standard for deep peak shaving of the second level of energy storage are conducive to accelerating the development of the energy storage industry.
The industry has significantly expanded its production, paying attention to the changes of medium and long-term supply and demand structure. According to the incomplete statistics of Sotheby’s photovoltaic network, since the beginning of the year, the planned expanded production scale of the four manufacturing links of silicon material, silicon wafer, cell and module has reached 620000 tons, 72.5gw, 66.8gw and 68.5gw respectively (excluding long-term planning). All links of the industrial chain show a trend of rapid expansion. According to the statistics of the silicon industry branch, as of mid March, there were 16 new enterprises announcing new and proposed polysilicon projects, with a total planned capacity of more than 1.7 million tons / year. If the capacity expansion of existing enterprises in production is included, the total increment will reach 3.5 million tons / year, and there is a risk of mismatch between supply and demand in the medium term.
The price of silicon material in the upstream continues to be strong, and the price in the middle and downstream is stable. The price of silicon material still maintained a slight rise this week. The reason: the release of new production capacity of silicon material including Tongwei, GCL, Xinte and ASI was less than expected, while the operating rate of existing silicon wafer enterprises remained high in the same period. In addition, the release progress of new production capacity including central, Gaojing, Shuangliang and Shangji was accelerated, and the increment of silicon material supply was relatively insufficient. The prices of silicon wafers, batteries, modules and photovoltaic glass were basically stable.
With intensive performance release, the upstream net profit of photovoltaic industry chain increased rapidly Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) in 2021, the total operating revenue was 8.713 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 39.18%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 2.120 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.15% Suzhou Good-Ark Electronics Co.Ltd(002079) realized an operating income of 247566100 yuan, an increase of 37.18% over the same period last year, and realized a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 217714400 yuan, an increase of 140.90% over the same period last year. Thanks to the high downstream demand, the volume and price of silicon materials rose simultaneously in the first quarter of 2022, and the net profit of Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) and Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) increased significantly.
Investment suggestion: in this round of market adjustment, the photovoltaic sector is relatively resistant to decline, and the resilience is also weaker than the market. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises in the field of thermal field materials, photovoltaic glass, integrated module factory and inverter with reasonable valuation in the medium and long term.
Risk warning: systemic risk; The price decline of raw materials is less than expected; The global installed demand is lower than expected; Periodic supply-demand mismatch, overcapacity and the risk of declining profitability.
