Matters:
On March 29, 2022, the National Energy Administration issued a notice on printing and distributing the guiding opinions on energy work in 2022. The opinion points out that the supply guarantee capacity should be strengthened. China’s total energy production reached about 4.41 billion tons of standard coal, about 200 million tons of crude oil and about 214 billion cubic meters of natural gas. The power transmission capacity reached about 2.69 trillion kwh, and the power transmission capacity of the West reached about 2.69 trillion kwh.
Steadily promote structural transformation. The proportion of coal consumption decreased steadily, the proportion of non fossil energy in the total energy consumption increased to about 17.3%, the replacement power of new electric energy was about 180 billion kwh, and the power generation of wind power and photovoltaic power accounted for about 12.2% of the power consumption of the whole society.
Focus on improving quality and efficiency. The target of energy consumption intensity shall be comprehensively considered during the 14th Five Year Plan period, with appropriate flexibility. The average utilization hours of cross regional transmission channels are in a reasonable range, and the utilization rate of wind power and photovoltaic power generation continues to maintain a reasonable level.
Public view of Guoxin environmental protection: 1) the guiding opinions have deployed the 22-year energy development goal, the goal of increasing the proportion of non fossil energy consumption to 17.3% and the goal of wind power photovoltaic power generation to 12.2%. According to the calculation, more than 110gw of wind and solar installed capacity will be added. 2) We will strengthen the planning and construction of large-scale scenery bases, and actively and orderly promote the approval and construction of new coastal nuclear power projects. 3) The market-oriented reform will continue to be promoted, and the development speed of pumped storage will be accelerated. 4) Investment suggestions: 1. Actively, safely and orderly develop nuclear power. As a high-quality asset with high yield, the valuation of nuclear power will be improved. It is recommended that “nuclear power and new energy” two wheel drive China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) ; 2. The reform of electricity marketization has been promoted, the installed capacity of new energy has increased significantly, and the profitability of new energy will be improved. It is recommended to recommend new energy operation leaders China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) with capital cost and resource advantages; 3. The policy promotes the optimal combination of coal and new energy. The long-term association coal price + long-term association electricity price policy is expected to be implemented, the linkage mechanism will be formed, the market-oriented trading of coal and electricity will be expanded, and the turning point of thermal power profit will appear. It is recommended to actively transform new energy with abundant cash flow, and the leader of thermal power Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) ; 4. The construction of new power system focusing on new energy is deeply beneficial to the construction of comprehensive electric energy service and intelligent distribution network. It is recommended to provide comprehensive electric energy service Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982)
Comments:
Sorting out energy development goals in 2022
The guiding opinions set the energy development target for 2022. The total national energy production will reach about 4.41 billion tons of standard coal, the installed capacity of electric power will reach about 2.6 billion kw, and the power generation will reach about 9.07 trillion kwh. The proportion of non fossil energy in the total energy consumption has increased to about 17.3%, and the proportion of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in the power consumption of the whole society has reached about 12.2%. The average utilization hours of trans regional transmission channels are in a reasonable range, the utilization rate of wind power and photovoltaic power generation continues to maintain a reasonable level, and the compound annual growth rate of installed capacity should reach 4.89%. At the same time, the proportion of coal consumption decreased steadily, and the proportion of non fossil energy in the total energy consumption increased to 17.3%; Wind power and photovoltaic power generation accounted for 12.2% of the electricity consumption of the whole society, indicating that the development of new energy will be further accelerated in 2022. According to the calculation, more than 110gw of wind and solar installed capacity will be added.
Vigorously develop scenery and actively and orderly promote nuclear power
The guidance points out that we should vigorously develop wind power and photovoltaic. Increase efforts to plan and build a new energy supply and consumption system based on large-scale scenery base, supported by clean, efficient, advanced and energy-saving coal power around it, and supported by stable, safe and reliable UHV power transmission and transformation lines. Optimize the layout of offshore wind power, carry out far-reaching demonstration of offshore wind power construction, and steadily promote the construction of offshore wind power bases. Actively promote the construction of water scenery complementary base.
Orderly promote the construction of major hydropower and nuclear power projects. We will promote the preliminary work of hydropower development in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River, complete and put into operation all units of Baihetan and Lianghekou Hydropower Stations, accelerate the construction of mengdigou hydropower stations on the Yalong River and Yangqu hydropower stations on the Yellow River, and promote the approval of Xulong hydropower station, with an installed hydropower capacity of 410 million KW. Complete and put into operation Fuqing No. 6, Hongyanhe No. 6, Fangchenggang No. 3 and high temperature gas cooled reactor demonstration projects, and actively and orderly promote the approval and construction of new coastal nuclear power projects on the premise of ensuring safety.
Marketization continued to advance, and pumped storage accelerated its development
The Guiding Opinions also pointed out that we should deepen market-oriented reform in key areas. We will promote the construction of a unified national power market system and do a good job in the construction of regional power markets in the south, the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. We will improve the market system that organically connects medium and long-term trading, spot trading and auxiliary service trading, and promote the pilot of qualified power spot to long-term operation. Actively promote the direct transaction between distributed generation and users nearby.
Speed up the construction of power system regulation capacity. Accelerate the construction of Longtou reservoir, improve the regulation and storage capacity of the basin, and alleviate the problem of power shortage in dry season and peak shaving capacity in flood season in some areas. We will promote the formulation of the implementation plan of the medium and long-term plan for pumped storage in all provinces and the work plan for the approval of the 14th five year plan, and accelerate the construction of a number of pumped storage power stations.
At the same time, the Opinions also pointed out the need to promote far-reaching offshore wind power technology innovation and demonstration project construction, and speed up the research on major key technologies such as new energy storage and hydrogen energy, such as low-carbon, zero carbon and negative carbon.
Investment advice
1. Actively, safely and orderly develop nuclear power. As a high-quality asset with high yield, the valuation of nuclear power will be improved. It is recommended that “nuclear power and new energy” two wheel drive China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) ; 2. The reform of electricity marketization has been promoted, the installed capacity of new energy has increased significantly, and the profitability of new energy will be improved. It is recommended to recommend new energy operation leaders China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) with capital cost and resource advantages; 3. The policy promotes the optimal combination of coal and new energy. The long-term association coal price + long-term association electricity price policy is expected to be implemented, the linkage mechanism will be formed, the market-oriented trading of coal and electricity will be expanded, and the turning point of thermal power profit will appear. It is recommended to actively transform new energy with abundant cash flow, and the leader of thermal power Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) ; 4. The construction of new power system focusing on new energy is deeply beneficial to the construction of comprehensive electric energy service and intelligent distribution network. It is recommended to provide comprehensive electric energy service Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982)
Risk tips:
Relevant policies are not as expected; The growth rate of power consumption decreased; Electricity price reduction; The price of raw materials has risen sharply.
