During the reporting period (2022 / 3 / 112022 / 3 / 25), the mechanical equipment industry fell by 3.89%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.83pct. Among the secondary sub industries, the rail transit sector fell the least, by 2.83%, and the automation equipment sector fell the most, by 5.67%. Among the three-level sub industries mainly tracked, lithium special equipment, semiconductor equipment, industrial control equipment, laser equipment and photovoltaic processing equipment changed by 4.09%, - 4.60%, - 5.52%, - 7.14% and - 9.49% respectively.
In the industry performance since the beginning of the year, the five secondary sub industries of mechanical equipment all fell, with the rail transit equipment sector falling the least, 9.66%, and the construction machinery sector falling the most, 23.06%. The five tertiary sub industries tracked also fell, with the lithium special equipment falling the least, 16.27%, and the laser equipment falling the most, 26.07%.
In terms of valuation, as of March 25, 2022, the dynamic P / E ratio of the mechanical equipment industry was 22.05 times, at the historical quantile level of 16.9%, down 0.8 from 22.85 times on March 11, 2022, and the valuation level was lower than the median of Shenwan industry. Among the secondary sub industries, the valuation level of automation equipment is the highest, 40.36 times. Among the three sub industries mainly tracked, the valuation levels of semiconductor equipment and special equipment for lithium battery are high, 113.57 times and 104.02 times respectively.
Investment suggestions:
Industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) : the output from January to February increased significantly year-on-year, which is expected to usher in an inflection point of the industry boom. From January to February 2022, the investment in fixed assets of China's manufacturing industry increased by 20.9% year-on-year, of which the investment in the purchase of equipment, tools and instruments increased by 12.8% year-on-year, ending the negative growth for eight consecutive months. Correspondingly, the industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) output from January to February totaled 76381 units, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 29.6%. Our analysis shows that the industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) demand mainly comes from the downstream industries such as automobiles and special equipment. Affected by the "lack of core", the production expansion plan of Chinese automobile manufacturers was postponed in 2021. This year, the "lack of core" has been alleviated, and the production capacity construction of automobile factories has been accelerated, which has boosted the improvement of industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) demand. The prosperity of China's photovoltaic and lithium battery industry is relatively high. The photovoltaic and lithium battery industry has accelerated the expansion of production, and the demand for processing equipment has increased. In order to improve the order receiving capacity, enterprises of lithium battery special equipment and photovoltaic processing equipment are also constantly expanding their production capacity, which has led to an increase in the demand for Industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) .
Photovoltaic equipment: the tide of production expansion continues in 2022, and the equipment company has deterministic growth expectations. From January to March 2022, many companies announced plans to expand their production, focusing on polysilicon materials and silicon wafers. Longji plans to expand the production of 20GW silicon wafer and 30GW battery; Jiangsu Runyang plans to expand the production of 50000 tons of silicon material and 5GW heterojunction battery; Jingke plans to expand the production of 30GW silicon rods Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) plans to expand the production of 200000 tons of industrial silicon and 100000 tons of polysilicon materials; Jingpin new energy plans to expand the production of 12gw monocrystalline silicon rods; Dongfang hope plans to build 125000 tons of polycrystalline silicon, 145000 tons of industrial silicon, 10GW single crystal, 10GW chip, 10GW battery and 25gw components; The total production expansion above is: 275000 tons of silicon material, 72gw of monocrystalline silicon rod + silicon wafer, 45gw of battery wafer and 25gw of components. The expansion of production is good for core equipment manufacturers, and the performance of equipment companies has deterministic growth expectations. If the above projects can be successfully implemented, it will bring about 27.5 billion yuan of silicon material equipment, 17.3 billion yuan of silicon rod silicon chip equipment, 10.9 billion yuan of battery chip equipment and 1.5 billion yuan of component equipment.
Automation equipment: the lithium battery market has entered a period of accelerated development, benefiting the industrial automation industry chain. The demand of new energy vehicles for lithium batteries has increased greatly, and the production expansion of battery enterprises has accelerated, which is directly beneficial to upstream automation equipment manufacturers. Machine vision: using machine vision to detect pole piece defects has the advantages of no contact, no damage and 100% detection. The advantages of machine vision in lithium battery electrode detection: first, high accuracy: it can accurately identify coating scratches, electrode damage, electrode ear welding asymmetry and other phenomena, and the accuracy is much higher than that of human eye detection. Second, it has objective repeatability: excluding the influence of subjective will, emotion, visual fatigue and other factors of battery test results, it has high reliability. Third, fast speed, high efficiency and low cost Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) aspect: Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) as a typical representative of smart devices, its application in lithium battery industry has achieved initial results. From industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) to mobile Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) (AGV / AMR) are increasingly appearing in the production and operation sites of major lithium battery manufacturers, and its recognition continues to improve.
Risk tips:
The scale and sustainability of production expansion of automobile enterprises are lower than expected; The actual landing capacity of photovoltaic industry is lower than expected; The rise in lithium prices affects the sales of new energy vehicles.
