Key investment points:
The high sales volume of electric vehicles drives the demand for battery recycling increasingly urgent. China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile sales volume started in 2015, and then maintained a rapid growth trend. The sales volume of new energy vehicles increased from 331000 in 2015 to 3521000 in 2021, with a compound annual growth rate of 48.3%. By the end of 2021, the number of new energy vehicles had reached 7.84 million. The rapid development of new energy vehicle industry has driven the rapid growth of power battery loading The loading volume of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery increased from 15.7gwh in 2015 to 154.5gwh in 2021, with a compound annual growth rate of 46.4%. The power batteries of new energy vehicles promoted in China in the early stage have successively entered the retirement period. With the rapid growth of the sales of new energy vehicles in recent years, we expect that the power batteries will usher in a large-scale retirement tide in the next 2-3 years, and the recycling demand of retired power batteries is becoming more and more urgent.
The scale of power battery recycling market is about to break out. In recent years, the rapid development of new energy vehicles has led to a sharp increase in the demand for power batteries, the lack of short-term capacity release and the impact of the global epidemic, resulting in the imbalance between the supply and demand of upstream raw materials, and the prices of key raw materials of lithium batteries such as lithium, cobalt and nickel have increased significantly. The sharp rise in the price of lithium battery raw materials improves the economic value of recycling waste power batteries and helps to improve the profitability of recycling enterprises. On the other hand, at present, China's dependence on lithium battery raw materials is very high. In the future, the recycling of batteries will gradually become one of the important sources of power battery raw material supply, which will alleviate the pressure of upstream raw material supply shortage to a certain extent. We predict that the recycling volume of waste power batteries will reach one million tons in 2025, the compound growth rate is expected to reach 42% from 2021 to 2025, and the market scale of waste power battery recycling is expected to reach 50 billion yuan in 2025.
Investment suggestion: power battery recycling is a necessary social and environmental problem to be solved, and it is an indispensable link to promote the sustainable development of new energy vehicle industry. The market penetration of new energy vehicles continues to improve, the sales volume has entered a rapid growth stage, and the number of new energy vehicles is growing. It is expected that the power battery will usher in a large-scale retirement tide in the next 2-3 years, and the recycling demand of waste power batteries is becoming increasingly urgent. At the same time, the price of upstream raw materials of power batteries has risen sharply, which improves the economic value of recycled power batteries and helps to improve the profitability of recycling enterprises. At present, the China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery recycling industry is still in its infancy. With the continuous rise of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the power battery recycling industry has huge development space in the future and is expected to become the next tuyere industry. It is suggested to focus on: battery recycling head enterprises with recycling channel advantages and leading technical strength: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ( Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ), Gem Co.Ltd(002340) ( Gem Co.Ltd(002340) ); As well as Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) ( Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) ) and Guangdong Guanghua Sci-Tech Co.Ltd(002741) ( Guangdong Guanghua Sci-Tech Co.Ltd(002741) ), which actively layout the power battery recycling business and enable the new growth.
Risk warning. The promotion of power battery recycling policy is less than expected, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is less than expected, the market competition risk of power battery recycling industry, and the risk of sharp decline in the price of lithium battery raw materials.
