\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 323 Grandblue Environment Co.Ltd(600323) )
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021, and realized the main business income of 11.777 billion yuan in the whole year, with a year-on-year increase of 57.41%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.163 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.01%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.124 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.17%, and the performance was in line with expectations.
The short-term performance of urban fuel business was dragged down, and the improvement of gas sales brought long-term growth power: according to the annual report, the clean energy transformation project of building ceramic enterprises in Nanhai District, Foshan City was completed, and the sales volume of natural gas reached 987 million m3, a year-on-year increase of 57.18%, a record high. Affected by the continuous rise of international energy prices, the comprehensive procurement cost of natural gas is rising, and limited by the price limit policy, leading to the upside down of purchase and sales price difference of large users in the third quarter. The net profit of the subsidiary Nanhai gas development decreased from 156 million yuan in 2020 to 187000 yuan in 2021. In the first quarter of 2022, the urban fuel business is still under pressure, but the company actively strives for favorable prices and replenishes high-quality gas sources. It is expected that the upside down of the price difference between purchase and sales of natural gas is expected to be improved from April 2022, and the natural gas business can strive to turn around losses. The company expects that the annual energy business is expected to achieve breakeven in 2022. We believe that the cost side pressure of urban fuel is a short-term factor. If the gas price falls, the increase of gas sales will bring long-term growth power.
Garbage incineration power generation continues to expand, and the proposed projects under construction are sufficient: the total scale of the company's domestic garbage incineration power generation projects is 34150 tons / day (excluding joint-stock projects), of which the scale of the projects that have been put into operation is 25550 tons / day (8300 tons / day in 2021), the scale of the pilot operation project is 500 tons / day, the scale of the projects under construction is 3350 tons / day, the scale of the projects under construction is 1450 tons / day, and the scale of the projects that have not been built is 3300 tons / day, Statically, the production capacity still has 33.65% growth space. With the substantial increase of projects put into operation, the waste incineration volume of the company reached 9.01 million tons in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 48.51%; The on grid power consumption is 2.95 billion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 53.69%. It is expected that the company's waste incineration power generation operation sector will still maintain a high growth rate in 2022. According to Qingyue data, as of May 31, 2021, China's waste incineration power generation capacity has reached 681000 tons / day; According to the national development and Reform Commission's "14th five year plan" for the development of urban domestic waste classification and treatment facilities, by the end of 2025, the national urban domestic waste incineration capacity will reach 800000 tons / day. Although the waste incineration power generation industry is facing a downward trend in the growth rate of new orders, there is still some room for growth in terms of absolute capacity during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
Investment suggestion: the management team of the company is excellent, and the "Hanlan mode" is upgraded around the continuous expansion of large solid waste. Although the performance growth of the company slows down due to the drag of urban fuel business in the short term, the company is still expected to show good growth in the long run. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.524 billion yuan, 1.816 billion yuan and 1.903 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 31.0%, 19.1% and 4.8% respectively, EPS of 1.87, 2.23 and 2.33 yuan / share respectively, corresponding to PE of 9.8x, 8.3x and 7.9x respectively, maintaining the Buy-A investment rating and a six-month target price of 24 yuan.
Risk warning: the progress of the project is not as expected, there is a downward risk of electricity price, and the price of natural gas continues to rise.
