\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 666 Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) )
The performance of coking coal with low value and high dividend is expected to rise to a higher level. Maintain “buy” rating
The company released its annual report for 2021, and realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.922 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 111%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was 2.919 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 100%. The company’s profitability increased significantly in 2021, which mainly benefited from the sharp rise of coking coal price in 2021 and the continuous release of economies of scale under the clean coal strategy. Among them, the net profit attributable to the parent company of Q4 was 1.15 billion yuan, an increase of 62.7% month on month, thanks to the price increase of coking coal long-term association of Q4 company and the release of performance flexibility. Due to the large increase of annual cost, the release of performance of the company was lower than expected. According to the annual report, we maintain the forecast for 20222023 and add the forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 7.32/8.15/8.52 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 150.5% / 11.3% / 4.5% and EPS of 3.16/3.52/3.68 yuan; The current share price corresponds to 4.7 / 4.2 / 4.1 times of PE. In the future, the supply and demand fundamentals are still tight. The company benefits from the continuous high operation of coking coal long-term association price, and the company’s performance is expected to be released steadily. Maintain the “buy” rating.
The price of refined coal increased steadily and the performance increased significantly
The company’s annual raw coal production and sales fell, but the production and sales of clean coal increased. In 2021, the coal production / sales volume reached 28.85/30.65 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4% / 2.7%; Q4 raw coal production / sales volume was 7.14/7.7 million tons, with a month on month increase of 4.2% / 6.3%; Annual clean coal production / sales volume was 11.88/11.99 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2% / 2.5%. The increase in coal prices led to a significant increase in the company’s profits. In October, the coal price hit a new high, and the port price of main coking coal reached 4200 yuan / ton; The annual unit selling price of clean coal of the company was 1596 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 35.5%. Due to the improvement of benefits, the increase of wages and the increase of investment in safety production, the cost increased year-on-year in 2021, and the annual average cost per ton of coal was 670 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 37.3%; The gross profit per ton of coal was 262 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 33.8%; The total annual gross profit was 8.2 billion yuan, an increase of 36.4% year-on-year.
Tight supply of coking coal, high dividend and burden reduction to build a high-quality company
In 2022, coking coal fundamentals may still be dominated by tight balance. In terms of supply, security inspection and environmental protection have been strengthened. There is no increment of coking coal in China. The Australian coal embargo has led to the relative scarcity of high-quality main coking coal in the market; In terms of demand, China’s “steady growth” is expected, the demand for downstream real estate infrastructure increases, and the international situation affects the return of manufacturing orders. It is expected that the demand for coking coal will rise throughout the year. Coking coal prices are expected to remain high and are optimistic about the annual performance growth in 2022. The company actively promotes the strategy of staff reduction and efficiency increase and the stripping of auxiliary industries. By stripping the backward non main businesses such as production assistance and living services, the company optimizes the allocation of main coal businesses and further promotes staff reduction and efficiency increase. In 2021, the company will reduce a total of 8000 staff, and plans to reduce staff to less than 40000 in the future. In terms of dividends, the company still carries out the high dividend commitment. In 2021, the company plans to pay a dividend of 1.76 billion yuan, accounting for 60.2% of the company’s net profit attributable to the parent, with a dividend rate corresponding to the latest closing price of 4.8%. Gaogaohong’s high dividend rate is still attractive, and the current undervalued value is expected to be repaired.
Risk tip: demand growth is less than expected; Coal prices fell more than expected; Increased security inspection led to production suspension and reduction
