\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 426 Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) )
Core conclusion
Event: the company released its 2021 annual report, which realized a revenue of 26.636 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 103.10%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.254 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 303.37%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 7.212 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 308.71%. Among them, Q4 company achieved a revenue of 8.401 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 106.32% and a month on month increase of + 26.86%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.642 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 223.40% and a month on month decrease of – 9.33%. In addition, the company released the performance forecast for the first quarter. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 2.25 billion yuan to 2.45 billion yuan in 2022q1, with a year-on-year increase of 43% to 55%.
The performance increased year-on-year, and the profit elasticity of the company was fully reflected. In the first half of 2021, with the economic recovery and the recovery of demand, the price of the company’s main products increased significantly; Since the second half of the year, affected by the rising prices of raw materials such as coal, the price difference of main products has narrowed and the gross profit has declined. Throughout the year, the volume and price of the company’s main products rose simultaneously, and the performance rebounded sharply and reached a new high compared with 2020.
The company’s performance growth mainly benefits from the sharp rise in product prices, while the advantage of flexible cogeneration helps the profit center continue to move upward. In 2021, the average price of the company’s main products increased significantly. For example, the average price of urea market was 2455 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 42.1%; The average market price of DMF was 13177 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 110.8%; The average market price of acetic acid was 6542 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 145.1%. At the same time, with the support of booming production and marketing and the company’s flexible joint production, the company can effectively smooth the pressure of some periodic fluctuations and continuously move up its profitability. The projects under construction are steadily promoted to determine the future growth space. During the year, the company’s refined adipic acid quality improvement project, dimethyl carbonate production and quality improvement project, caprolactam and supporting devices were completed and put into operation as scheduled. At the same time, Jingzhou base continued to promote construction and is expected to be completed and put into operation in 2023. The layout of the company in the new energy and new materials industry chain is accelerated, and many new projects will lay the company’s long-term performance increment, which is expected to open the second growth curve.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 8.312/86.54/9.962 billion respectively, the corresponding EPS will be RMB 3.94/4.10/4.72 respectively, and the corresponding current PE will be 8.2x/7.9x/6.9x respectively. The company’s profitability is stable. At the same time, with the continuous launch of the company’s new projects in the future as planned, it will drive the continuous growth of the company’s performance, so it maintains the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: safety accidents affect production; Sharp fluctuations in international oil prices; The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations
