\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) 600)
Core conclusion
Event: in 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 30.167 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 8.67%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.155 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 43.34%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 2.207 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 21.54%. The operating revenue of 21q4 was 3.395 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 1.73%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is -455 million yuan; The net profit deducted from non parent company was -1.009 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 147 million yuan, and the performance was in line with expectations.
The high-end achievements are brilliant, and the volume and price are improved smoothly. In 21 years, the company’s beer sales volume was 7.93 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of + 1.41%; The price per ton was 3742 yuan / kiloliter, a year-on-year increase of + 7%. The increase in volume and price jointly promoted the beer business revenue to increase by 8.5% year-on-year. In terms of sub brands, the sales volume of main brands accounted for 54.6%, with a year-on-year increase of + 5pct and significant structural upgrading. From the perspective of ton price, the price increase was conducted smoothly. The ton price of main brands increased by 3% and that of other brands increased by about 7%.
Cost pressure does not stop the improvement of profitability under high-end. The price of packaging materials increased significantly in the past 21 years. The company’s procurement amount of packaging materials increased by about 9.5% year-on-year, and the corresponding ton cost increased by + 4.9% year-on-year. Relying on the improvement of the profitability of high-end companies, under the pressure of cost, the gross profit margin increased by 1.28pcts to 36.73% year-on-year, and the net profit margin increased by 2.53pcts to 10.46%. During the 21 years, the company’s expense rate was 18.49%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.19%, of which the sales expense rate was 13.58%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.71pct. The company’s gross profit increased by about 11% year-on-year to 1 billion yuan under the reduction caliber, and the expansion of non year-on-year loss was mainly due to the increase of expenses during the period (the sales expenses increased by about 400 million yuan and the management expenses decreased by about 200 million yuan).
Short term disturbance is not enough to fear, and the annual profit growth is still considerable. Since March, Shandong and Jilin, the dominant markets of Tsingtao beer, have been greatly affected by the epidemic. We believe that the sales base of 21q2 and Q3 companies is low. If the epidemic is controlled, the logic of volume and price increase in peak season is still expected to be fulfilled. We expect the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 22 / 23 / 24 to be RMB 3.431/41.784716 billion, corresponding to EPS of RMB 2.51/3.06/3.46, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the recovery of the epidemic situation is not as expected; Price fluctuation of raw materials; The high-end process is less than expected; The sales volume in peak season is lower than expected.
