\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 754 Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) )
Core conclusion
The store opened more than expected, and the epidemic repeatedly led to twists and turns in the recovery in the second half of the year. The company's annual revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 11.339 billion yuan and 100 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 14.56% / - 8.70%, deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of - 122 million yuan, a loss of 548 million yuan compared with the same period last year. The revenue of single Q4 was 3.85 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 3.28%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 3.85 million yuan, which turned the loss into profit year-on-year, and the net profit not attributable to the parent was - 77.37 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 188 million yuan. The company suffered a loss of RMB 2.04 billion, mainly due to the recovery of overseas hotel business and government subsidies of RMB 2.04 billion. The profit of China's hotel business reached 443 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 49.40%, and a year-on-year decrease of 18.94% after excluding the impact of subsidies, mainly due to the repeated impact of the epidemic in the second half of the year. In addition, the annual catering business realized a parent company profit of 203 million yuan. In the whole year, 1763 new stores were opened, 239 were withdrawn, 317 were transferred from business to preparation, with a net increase of 1207, which exceeded the expectation. In terms of RevPAR, domestic and overseas hotels recovered to 87.45% and 66.96% in the same period of 19 years. The differentiation outside China resumed in the second half of the year, and the recovery slowed down significantly due to the scattered epidemic in China.
It is planned to open 1500 new stores in 22 years. The rebound of the epidemic may still put pressure on China's business and wait for the day of flowers. The company plans to open 1500 new stores and sign 2500 new contracts in 22 years, which is expected to be completed with little difficulty. In the past 22 years, the epidemic situation in various regions has shown an upward trend, which may further delay the pace of industrial recovery. However, we believe that we need to look at the leading development opportunities of the hotel from a medium to long-term perspective. The epidemic has brought about a significant clearing of the industry, the strong enabling potential of the leading enterprises has been fully recognized by investors, the Matthew effect of the industry is expected to continue to be deduced, and we are optimistic that the share of Jinjiang City will continue to increase in the future. In addition, the hotel industry 18q4 has entered the last round of hotel downward cycle, superimposing the huge impact of the epidemic. The time and space dimensions of the industry adjustment are very sufficient, which will also bring a large upward space for the next round of business cycle, waiting for the day of flowers.
Investment suggestion: considering the impact of short-term epidemic fluctuations, we lowered the previous profit forecast and increased the 24-year profit forecast. It is expected that the company's EPS in 22-24 years will be 0.61/1.62/2.06 yuan respectively, and the corresponding latest PE will be 80 / 30 / 24 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation outside China repeatedly affects the recovery; Macroeconomic downward pressure.
