\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 633 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) )
Core view
Revenue side: the upgrading of product structure pushes up the average price of single car
In 2021 / 4q21, the company achieved revenue of 136.4 billion / 45.61 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 32.0% / + 10.8% respectively, of which 4q21 revenue increased by + 58.0% month on month. In 2021 / 4q21, the sales volume of the company was 1.28 million / 397000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 15.2% / – 7.9%, of which the sales volume of 4q21 was + 49.3% month on month. In 2021 / 4q21, the average price of a single car of the company is expected to reach 95000 / 103000, with a year-on-year increase of + 10000 / + 18000 respectively. The increase in the average price is expected to be boosted by the increase in the proportion of high priced new products such as tank series, Harvard big dog, Great Wall artillery passenger car series and the tight supply of terminals.
Profit side: 4q21 net interest rate is under pressure, and the annual profitability remains stable
1. 4q21 deduct non net profit. In 2021 / 4q21, the company realized a net profit attributable to its parent company of 6.73 billion / 1.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 25.4% / – 35.8%, and a net profit deducted from non attributable to its parent company of 4.2 billion / 550 million, a year-on-year increase of + 9.6% / – 71.9%. In 2021, non current items were mainly government subsidies of 2.2 billion (year-on-year + 930 million).
2. It is estimated that 4q21 gross profit margin is under pressure and management expenses are under pressure on profits. In 2021 / 4q21, the net interest rate deducted by the company was 3.1% / 1.2% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -0.6pct / – 3.6pct respectively. In terms of splitting, the gross profit margin of the company in 2021 / 4q21 was 16.2% / 15.3% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.1pct / – 3.0pct respectively. Based on the analysis of 4q21 and comprehensive consideration of the company’s annual report, we expect that the gross profit margin will still have a negative impact of about 1-2pct (the sales expense rate is – 1.6pct year-on-year), and the superimposed management expense rate is + 1.0pct year-on-year (mainly affected by equity incentive expenses), resulting in significant pressure on the company’s 4q21 net profit margin.
The layout of technology, products and incentives is perfect, and the development prospect is clear. 1) The company’s new car cycle is strong. Following the launch of h6s, Harvard Beast / first love / red rabbit and tank 500 in 2021, the company will launch new models such as Harvard cool dog, Euler ballet cat, tank 700 and diamond gun in 2022; 2) The medium and long-term strategic layout is clear. In terms of power route, the company comprehensively arranges pure electricity, hydrogen energy and hybrid; On the model, the rapid landing of the model is realized based on the three platforms of lemon, tank and coffee; In the aspect of electric intelligence, we use honeycomb energy to go deep into the battery, and realize an intelligent center, a powerful cornerstone and three intelligent upgrades based on “coffee intelligence 2.0”, marking that Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) has officially entered cognitive intelligence from perceptual intelligence; 3) Equity incentive is bound to the core backbone. The company’s equity incentive plan in 2021 covers 8784 company backbones, and the assessment index biased towards sales volume is beneficial to the expansion of the company’s market share.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company to achieve operating revenue of 174.39 billion yuan, 207.4 billion yuan and 253.75 billion yuan in 2022, 2023 and 2024, corresponding to net profit attributable to parent company of 9.52 billion yuan, 11.79 billion yuan and 13.97 billion yuan. Calculated by today’s closing price, PE is 26.2 times, 21.2 times and 17.9 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the company’s product launch and sales are less than expected, the mitigation degree of chip shortage is less than expected, and the rise of raw material cost is more than expected
