\u3000\u30 China Baoan Group Co.Ltd(000009) 21 Hisense Home Appliances Group Co.Ltd(000921) )
Event: Hisense Home Appliances Group Co.Ltd(000921) publishes the annual report of 2021. The company achieved revenue of 67.56 billion yuan in 2021, yoy + 39.6%; Achieved a performance of 970 million yuan, yoy-38.4%. After conversion, Q4 achieved revenue of 17.5 billion yuan in a single quarter, yoy + 29.3%; Achieved performance of 50 million yuan, yoy-92.0%. Excluding the impact of three electricity and meter consolidation, Q4 single quarter revenue yoy + 12.7%, performance yoy-88.6%. We believe that Q4 Hisense Home Appliances Group Co.Ltd(000921) central air conditioning business continues to develop, household air conditioning and ice washing business continue to grow, and the growth rate of revenue in a single quarter is in line with expectations; The cost pressure of raw materials continues, and the profitability continues to be under pressure.
The prosperity of Q4 industry is low, and the growth rate of the original main business slows down: we judge that the income of Q4 company's original main business (household air conditioning, ice washing and other businesses) has increased by single digits year-on-year. In terms of domestic and export sales: 1) in terms of domestic sales, Q4 China's household power market continues to be depressed due to the repeated epidemic and the decline of consumption boom. According to industry online data, Q4 company's domestic shipments of household air conditioners and refrigerators are yoy + 9.1% / - 1.0%. 2) In terms of export sales, due to the tight shipping capacity and the high base in the same period last year, the growth rate of domestic air conditioning and refrigerator export business revenue of Q4 Hisense Home Appliances Group Co.Ltd(000921) fell. According to industry online data, Q4 company's export shipments of household air conditioners and refrigerators were yoy + 35.4% / - 11.6% (compared with + 51.3% / + 114.1% in the same period last year). Looking forward to the follow-up, Hisense Home Appliances Group Co.Ltd(000921) will vigorously develop key markets, focus on emerging channels and strengthen brand promotion. The revenue scale is expected to grow steadily.
Q4 central air business continues its rapid growth trend: we infer that Q4 company's central air conditioning revenue increased by double digits year-on-year. According to industry online data, Q4 Hisense Hitachi multi online sales yoy + 10.0%. The demand for quality of life continues to promote the penetration of household central air conditioning. Hisense Hitachi not only has the technical advantages and brand influence of Hitachi, but also has Hisense's perfect sales service system in China. We believe that Hisense Hitachi is expected to fully benefit from the development dividend of household central air conditioning.
Q4 single quarter profitability is under pressure: Q4 Hisense Home Appliances Group Co.Ltd(000921) gross sales difference is -2.6pct year-on-year, including gross profit margin of -9.6pct year-on-year. The company's profitability has declined, which is mainly due to: 1) the price of Q4 raw materials is at a high level, the company has great cost pressure, the loss of home air business and the decline of profitability of ice washing business; 2) The company's consolidated gross profit margin is relatively low, and Sandian Holdings has an impact on the overall gross profit margin. Under the comprehensive influence, the net interest rate of Q4 company was 0.3%, with a year-on-year increase of -4.0pct. Excluding the impact of three electricity and meter consolidation, the net interest rate of Q4 company was 0.4%, with a year-on-year increase of -3.8p CT.
Q4 net operating cash flow decreased year-on-year: Hisense Home Appliances Group Co.Ltd(000921) Q4 net operating cash flow in a single quarter + 820 million yuan, yoy-55.8%. According to our judgment, the cash paid by Q4 company for purchasing goods and receiving labor services is yoy + 157.7%, mainly due to the increase of the company's raw material preparation cost. At the end of Q4, the cash on hand of the company was 12.65 billion yuan (monetary capital + trading financial assets), yoy + 30.0%, and the company had abundant funds on hand.
Investment suggestion: the growth space of the central air industry is large, and the leading Hisense Hitachi is expected to benefit from the development of the industry for a long time. Subsequently, the company's valuation is expected to improve with the gradual restoration of profitability driven by the easing of raw material price pressure. At present, the company is continuously integrating Sandian holdings, which will help the company enter the field of automobile air conditioning compressor and automobile air conditioning system, open up new market space, and is expected to have synergy with the company's existing business. It is estimated that the company's EPS will be 0.5% from 2022 to 202482 / 0.99/1.13 yuan, with an investment rating of buy-a. the six-month target price is 13.15 yuan, equivalent to 16 times the dynamic P / E ratio in 2022.
Risk tip: trade barriers have intensified, the RMB exchange rate has appreciated significantly, and the cost of raw materials has risen sharply
