\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 689 Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) )
Events
The company issued the announcement of pre increase of performance in the first quarter of 2022. 22q1 company is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.63 ~ 3.73 billion yuan, yoy is 50% ~ 54%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 346 ~ 386 million yuan, yoy is 41% ~ 57%. Deduct 340 ~ 380 million yuan of net profit not attributable to parent company, 42% ~ 58% of yoy.
Key investment points
22q1 exceeded expectations, and the profit increased month on month compared with 21q4
In 22q1, the company achieved a revenue of 3.63 ~ 3.73 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 50% ~ 54%. The high growth of revenue is mainly due to ① product platform strategy and tier0 The level 5 marketing strategy has been promoted smoothly, and all businesses have achieved rapid development; ② Large new energy customers continued to sell in large quantities. Tesla Shanghai 22m1 ~ M2 wholesale sales volume was 116000, with a year-on-year increase of 245%. According to the calculation of the company's previously disclosed operating data from January to February, it is expected to achieve a revenue of 1.1 ~ 1.2 billion yuan in March, with a year-on-year increase of about 30 ~ 41%. The growth rate of revenue in March narrowed slightly, which is expected to be due to the spread of China's epidemic in many places in March, affecting downstream production and sales. The net profit attributable to the parent company of 22q1 was 346 ~ 386 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 41% ~ 57%. The profitability measured by the net profit attributable to the parent company / income was 10% based on the median value of 22q1, and 21q4 was about 9.4% (reducing the impact of impairment). It increased by 0.6pct compared with 21q4, and the profitability was improved. In the first quarter, when the cost side was still under pressure, the profitability of the company was still strong.
Customer + product two wheel drive, a high-quality platform parts company fully embracing new energy
In terms of new energy customers, deepen the tier 0.5 model, and the new projects of Huawei and rivian will be launched in 2022; On the basis of the original Geely and GM, the company has conducted in-depth cooperation with Tesla, velai, Byd Company Limited(002594) and other customers, successively obtained orders from Ford and rivian (ASP has reached 11000 yuan), and began to cooperate with Chongqing Jinkang in key vehicle models, lightweight chassis systems and other products, and began to cooperate with Huawei in thermal management system related products. In December, the company plans to invest 1.5 billion yuan in Chongqing Shaba District, covering 500 mu of land, In phase I, the lightweight chassis system and interior sound insulation system will be expanded by 180 mu. In phase II, the automotive electronics and thermal management system will be planned to provide localized supporting new production capacity for Xiaokang and Huawei. The mass production of rivian, Huawei and other new projects will continue to contribute significant increment to the company in 2022, and the mass production of rivian, Huawei and other new projects will continue to contribute significant increment to the company in 2022.
In terms of product layout, based on the further extension of the five product lines of the original NVH damping system, vehicle acoustic suite, lightweight chassis system, thermal management system and intelligent driving system, and grasp the market demand to layout the air suspension business, the company's first air suspension system factory has been completed, with an annual output of 2 million air suspensions and supporting 500000 vehicles, as well as independent design, independent research and development of air suspension The comprehensive supporting capacity integrating independent manufacturing will be officially put into operation in June 2022, further opening the ceiling of the company's growth.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company grasps the new energy trend, deepens the product platform strategy and tier 0.5 marketing mode, and the new energy customers and categories are driven by two wheels. The performance is expected to continue to grow rapidly. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.05/17/2.32 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 66.4% / 63.1% / 36.7%, corresponding to pe61.5% 8 / 37.9 / 27.7x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Car sales are lower than expected, new energy vehicle sales are lower than expected, and raw material prices fluctuate.
