\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 22 Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) )
Event: the company released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 22 years, and it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.78-1.97 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 90-110%; Non net profit deducted was RMB 1.79-1.98 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 90-110%. The company's performance forecast exceeded market expectations. We expect that the company's Q1 and HPV vaccine sales will benefit from the expansion of MSD's supply and increase significantly, and the pentavalent wheel will maintain rapid growth on the basis of last year's high base. Covid-19 vaccine is expected to make a limited contribution, and the main contributions are non covid-19 products.
Launch a new round of employee stock ownership to show confidence in future development. The company launched the third employee stock ownership plan. Under the background of common prosperity, the number of employees involved is far ahead of twice. According to the company's 20-year annual report, the total number of employees involved is 3380, which is close to 60%. At the same time, the total amount raised is 2.92 billion yuan, which is far ahead of twice. While highlighting the company's development confidence, it is also expected to greatly mobilize the overall enthusiasm of the company.
The company's R & D pipeline continues to advance and is expected to continue to provide growth power in the next few years. The preventive micro card and EC diagnostic reagent of heavy products in the company's R & D pipeline have been approved. It is expected to contribute a large profit in 2022 and increase the proportion of independent profit. Other products, such as 23 valent pneumonia polysaccharide vaccine, human diploid rabies vaccine (which has been announced to obtain the clinical summary report and will be reported for production soon), tetravalent influenza vaccine, 15 valent pneumonia vaccine, tetravalent meningitis combination, dysentery bivalent and other products, are in clinical phase III. EV71 vaccine and tetravalent norovin vaccine are in clinical phase I to phase II. They will be gradually put on the market in the next few years to provide a driving force for sustainable development, The company's R & D pipeline valuation remodeling continues.
Profit forecast: covid-19 vaccine is expected to significantly improve the company's performance. At the same time, we expect the epidemic to show a normalization trend. Due to the large amount of contribution to performance, we will not consider covid-19 forecast for the time being. In addition, according to the company's current supply of HPV vaccine, we adjusted the previous profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.533 billion yuan, 7.054 billion yuan and 9.069 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 37%, 56% and 29%; EPS is 2.83 yuan, 4.41 yuan and 5.67 yuan respectively. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: HPV sales are lower than expected; Uncertainty of product R & D Progress
