\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 240 Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) )
Stripping the rare earth business of fiberboard, focusing on the main business of lithium. Relying on the advantages of industrial resources of shengtun group, Xinxing company of lithium industry integration, which is backed by shengtun group, sells fiberboard, rare earth and other businesses. After that, it will successively peel off the forestry business and focus on the field of lithium battery materials; The company’s lithium resource layout + smelting capacity have been expanded simultaneously, the revenue and profit have increased significantly, and the profitability has been continuously enhanced. It has become a leading lithium salt supplier in the industry.
The supply and demand of the industry supports the lithium price center to maintain a high level. The accelerated development of lithium resources is conducive to the healthy development of the industry. Benefiting from the rising momentum of the new energy industry chain, the lithium price continues to rise under the mismatch of supply and demand. The core of the fundamentals supporting this round of lithium price rise lies in the significant structural change and growth logic on the demand side, the bottleneck on the supply side lies in resources, and the mismatch of supply and demand leads to a stronger persistence of the high level of the lithium price center. In the process of supply-demand mismatch, price change and cost transmission, the relationship between supply and demand is the decisive factor of lithium price, and market demand is the fundamental supporting factor of cost transmission. It is difficult to regulate lithium price by administrative means, and accelerating the development of lithium resources through administrative means will help to ensure the safety of the supply chain and the healthy development of the industry, so as to enhance the global competitiveness and voice of China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) industrial chain, and enterprises with high-quality lithium resources in the process of accelerating development will fully benefit.
The global resources are actively distributed, the long-term association underwrites lithium concentrate, stabilizes the source of raw materials, and the self supply rate is rising. It has a small number of yelonggou lithium mines under mining in China, Murong lithium mines with superior resource endowment and expected to be developed as soon as possible, taiyanghekou lithium mines under exploration, and Zimbabwe Lithium Tantalum mines are expected to be completed and put into operation by the end of the year; Signed long-term underwriting agreement with Galaxy lithium and avz mining, and strategic cooperation with Guocheng group is expected to promote the resumption of production and underwriting of ore of dangba lithium mine in markang; It has the right to operate the sdla Salt Lake project in Argentina.
The lithium salt production capacity has expanded steadily. At present, the annual production capacity is 70000 tons, with a 23-year plan of 130000 tons. Zhiyuan lithium industry has an annual production capacity of 25000 tons of lithium carbonate and 15000 tons of lithium hydroxide. Suining Shengxin 30000 tons of lithium hydroxide production capacity has been completed and put into operation in January, and Shengwei lithium industry has a production capacity of 400 tons of 600 tons of metal lithium in phase I. Subsequently, the 60000 ton lithium salt production capacity of Indonesia project was gradually implemented. By 23 years, the company is expected to have an annual lithium salt production capacity of 130000 tons and an equity production capacity of 99400 tons, ranking among the first-line lithium salt manufacturers. The customer base is high-quality. In the near future, it is planned to introduce Byd Company Limited(002594) as a strategic investor through fixed growth, cooperate with upstream and downstream in the purchase and sale of raw materials and the development of lithium resources, bind high-quality customers and provide product order guarantee.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 22, 23 and 24 years will be 29.86/47.18/5.667 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 16 / 10 / 8 times respectively. Considering that the prosperity of the new energy industry continues to be high, the layout of the company’s lithium resource end will gradually take shape, the self-sufficiency rate will continue to rise, the capacity of lithium salt smelting end will gradually expand and the capacity to cash in will be strong, so it will be rated as “buy”.
Risk tip: the energy storage development of new energy vehicles is less than expected, the production capacity is less than expected, and the product price falls.
